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Message: Re: Bear
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Jun 06, 2020 07:56AM
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Jun 06, 2020 09:28AM
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Jun 06, 2020 12:49PM
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Jun 06, 2020 01:12PM
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Jun 06, 2020 01:19PM

Jonzo, 

One additional possibility is the announcement of filing for cardio BTD with the EMA. From the Nov 18 CC, DM stated "one of the key areas is the breakthrough therapy status filings, and we’ll be doing that both at the FDA and EMA. We believe we have what it takes to get that done in the next 90 to 120 days. And we’ll be moving forward in that type of direction regardless."

He followed that up with this, though: "So, SGLT2i partnering discussions, one is already initiated and key patents have already been filed. That is an exciting category. Renal partnering and discussions are moving forward. Congestive heart failure partnering discussions, already initiated. And we will continue with our orphan partnering discussions but we’ve narrowed it down to two only at this time just to stay focused. And they will be PAH and HIV only at this time. The PAH enrollment has already commenced. And the HIV funding has been derived and yet to be named yet [sic] from a US organization.  So going forward, these five areas are going to add a lot of commercial value in the very short term." 

I'll admit that I'm less bullish on next week's update than most on here. If kidney data is revealed, I don't doubt that it will be good seeing as there was something interesting enough in it to earn RVX a late-breaker spot (even if we didn't end up using it). I don't think good kidney data alone will be enough to propel us to a position where we can sustain an increased pps (look at where we are with good cardio data/BTD for that), unless DM states that we are applying for FDA BTD for kidney as well.

With Prof Kausik Ray tweeting that RVX was going back to FDA w/ requested changes this week, it would be remarkably fast for RVX to have received trial confirmation. That makes me think that we are a little early to have 100% clarity on the next step for BoM, which I assume most companies who may be interested in "co-developing" with us would want. FDA guidance received up to this point is possible. As quoted above, DM did state that renal partnering discussions were ongoing in Nov. 2019, so I do note it's certainly possible that this has come to fruition, especially given the ERA-EDTA presentation. Ongoing kidney partnering discussions could also explain the decision to not present at NKF.

The company's explanation for pulling out of NKF was suspect to many here: "After careful consideration of a number of factors, including presenter schedules, new format etc., the Company and presenters have decided to pull out of the NKF late-breaker until such time the format is more suited for the presentation of our sensitive data". There was someone (Jonzo??) on the board who stated that this could be due to ongoing kidney partnering discussions. If that turns out to be the case, step forward to collect your prize. 

I'll be watching trading on Monday to see if institutions stop dumping (or anonymous increases their buying) now that RVX has made this announcement. If the shareprice bloodshed continues through to Wednesday, I fear we may have an ugly amount of dilution headed our way. Given the recent share price freefall, I am not convinced that Wednesday is anything more than an attempt to reduce our speed of descent and placate the masses. If we see relief from significant institutional selling, I'll start browsing the restaurant's drink menu. Happy to be wrong about my bearish view for next week, and if I am I will leave my table for one and come join the rest of the restaurant having celebratory drinks. 

One additiional (bullish) note: in his interview with Lilamax ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v54hV7Jeec&t=401s ), DM stated "it's been a fantastic year for us, believe it or not. It won't show in the stock until this whole economic crisis is over". He was very confident that RVX's share price would be appreciating after the Covid economic impacts. Not sure if it means anything, but I noticed he said 'economic crisis' rather than pandemic or some other wording more related to the health issues related to Covid. This was while deaths/infections were raging throughout NA and at that time, most of the coverage was focused on deaths from Covid, not the financial implications from it. Our share price was already fairly low before Covid ($1.25?), so for him to be confident in it rising after the economic landscape post-covid became clearer, and for DM to be focused on the economic impact of Covid earlier than most, I think it's very possible that there was some sort of partnership/deal in the works that was delayed until the mystery participant had a clearer view of how Covid was going to affect their finances.

That about sums it up. And who says you can't finish writing a novel in a single day?

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Jun 06, 2020 05:50PM
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