Re: Biogen
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 03, 2019 10:37AM
I don't want to be a "wet blanket" (ohhhh boyyyy) regarding the "current" retail markets .... and I STRONGLY believe in RVX, and its future ....
However, even with massively good data, so far, and potentially this week ... it is still a highly speculative drug/stock that the market will "probably" struggle with for a while, on its own "IMHO"
Pink sheets / over the counter ... until Nasdaq, there will be a limited "general" market, that is wary of "speculative" penny stocks
Road ahead ... This company may be well positioned financially shortly for the "near" term, but certainly not positioned to get this drug to market, and maybe not even approved by the FDA unless there is a keg of dynamite coming in the FDA letter about break-through status and fast-tracking for one or more indications. So, absent a BP, how will this drug ever get to market for an investor ROI?
So many VERY promising drugs never make it to market, even when they work, for various reasons.
We here understand the positives like 20 years of research, studies to date, safety profile, the appearance of strong clinical benefit, apparent interest from BP, etc. Those things are great, but money people look for the "downside, the risk to their money and investment. There are still some big questions even though we are systematically working through them.
I would not be surprised by excellent "promising" data this week, and a mild-moderate market response. Don't want to speculate on pps, but I like the potential to get back to recent highs, maybe even more if the additional cognitive data is excellent and Don drops more hints about the FDA (or Europe/Asia) and/or BP partners
Just not expecting a huge jump until some MORE of the following is divulged in a postive way ....
1. Better defining the "miracle drug" - how and why EXACTLY is apabetalone is impacting low eGFR diabetic cardiopathy patients, renal patients, and maybe cognitive patients ... what is the common link(s), and how will this be predictable for future prescribing. "Magic" does not work, must DEFINE the details. In a way that makes sense to the investing public, assuming the clinical, science, and BP commercial people get it ...
2. FDA/pathway disposition - likelihood and eventual time & route to market
3. Partnering realities - a partnering big BP would do wonders for confidence, for the general public ... steerage, finances, relationships, experience, past success, and simply their "vested" interest. Much like Hepalink and Eastern do for we "dialed in" Agora RVX "groupies" :)
4. Trading Markets (Nasdaq?) - it would certainly help to have access to the bigger and more regulated trading boards, and the visibility and retail & institutional numbers for open trading.
Again, not wanting to be a wet blanket, just thinking that there is probably more road ahead to get to the "pop" even with great data, due to some uncertainties and limited access. I do think the "pop" is coming somewhere down the road though, it is always possible that a BP "blinks" (or RVX blinks) when enough is known and understood for mutual deal-making comfort.
Just sharing some thoughts, and concerns & possible barriers ... while hoping to high "heck" that this week's cognitive data blows conventional thinking out of the water and there is a pop (a positive one).
Hard to predict how the "world" would/will react to to ground-breaking and potentially "break-through" worthy cognitive data though. Cuatiiously optimistic, and hopeful, despite the market/pps pragmatism.
Rooting HARD for a really nice run up though, to continually raise the BP buyout "floor" not to mention seeing my account look a increasingly better haha ... Go RVX
Hope I'm wrong about my own personal cautions and concerns (they are my own)! Can't wait for RVX to show me I was wrong about the near term retail investor market! ... would also love to see the trigger finger of a few BP's get "itchy" with a trending pps also. At some point (given the market potential) as risk reduces, and we get closer and closer to indications/approvals, the purchase price will be less of a bargain .... who, when, how, how much exactly .... is "now" for RVX and BP?
Again, we will be hopeful for great data this week ... and also very watchful and observant of Don for clues on the road ahead ... could go on for multiple more paragreaphs on attempting to read the "data + Don/webcast" ... will save that for later to narrow the scenarios haha
Apologies for length and potentially "rambling" a bit ... just live-streaming my brain for discussion and feeback regarding "short term" market concerns. Excited for Cognitive data and Don's message to we the investors.
Go RVX