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Message: Biotech’s – Full Disclosure can take weeks if not months

Even with todays small drop in stock price, the sp is up over a $1 from the low on Sept 30th after the Topline results were released. Congrats to those of you who had the foresight and/or balls to buy more shares. I for one was not adding, but that may turn out to be a huge mistake, but one I can easily live with. For those who purchased, you may have sold some to de-risk your overall exposure, sold some to get back your cost, or are letting it ride, in hopes the upcoming data lights a fire under the stock.

All good for those of you who bought those extra shares, but I was thinking today, your paper profit is mirrored with a likely large realized loss by a former shareholder, maybe even a friend or family member of yours, who sold off on the TL results.

Obviously, the stock market is premised on a buyer and seller, but the bio-tech stock market is unique in that it does not mirror the general market when it comes to releasing information to the buyer and seller. I.e.: What other market segment would have information so material to its stock that it could cause it to crash and burn or soar to the sun and yet not release such information because it needs/wants to present it at a future conference. None that I can think of off hand.

So, for those shareholders who did not listen to Don pre-market telling them not to sell or for reasons totally understandable did not put a lot of faith in Don, likely sold at a large loss or gave back large paper gains. But RVX had data at that point, maybe not the full data it will present this weekend, but data that if released could have possibly changed the opinion of those that sold.

But due to the uniqueness of the bio-tech industry that data was withheld for a late breaking presentation at the AHA for I suppose 3 reasons – (1) The largest possible audience of influencers (2) prestige (3) reward to the research team- maybe other reasons, but does not really matter, I think #1 is the key reason.

Not only that, the cognitive data is being withheld until Dec 5th for release at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease conference. There are some that are skeptical that the AHA results will move the needle and are hoping the cognitive results are the catalyst for the sp. Don commented some wanted him to push these results to a more prestigious conference in 2020. Imagine if the AHA results are not what some hope and this is the last hope and it was pushed out months instead of a couple weeks.

To conclude my rambling. I feel for those who sold at 30-70cents. Yes, they could have held and if everything flames out, they may have been right to bail; but if they owned most any other stock other than a biotech, they would have likely had far greater disclosure upfront and would have made a more educated decision. In my opinion, a bit of an unfair result, but no one said life is fair.

 

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