My rationale for thinking its game over if BETonMACE fails with the primary outcome are as follows.  Firstly I assume that Resverlogix needs about 40-50 million Canadian per year for operational expenses, salaries and to conduct trials....its a spit ball figure, but I think its reasonably close to the mark.  I'm also assuming that Resverlogix is basically broke right now, yes I know they've got a few million in the bank....but in my books its peanuts at this stage.

So let us assume that Apabetalone fails to show a statiscally significant relative risk reduction in the time to first occurence of 3 point MACE as the BETonMACE trial is designed to measure.  However let us also assume that results for other indications such as Cognition and CKD show promise.  What then?  A phase 2 Kidney trial and perhaps a Phase 2 Cognition trial....then "if" those succeed then another phase 3 trial.  How long are we talking?  I'm assuming at bare minimum another 2 years, probably more like 3 years.  That would mean the need for another $100 to $150 million by my estimations.  

Many have offered up the opinion that the reason Resverlogix's Mcap isn't higher at this point is that Apabetalone is a 'first in class' drug....meaning the market is waiting on proof.  If BETonMACE fails to deliver definitive results on the Primary Outcome for which is was designed....how would the market react to a drug that has twice failed to meet clinical primary end points in late stage trials?  I don't think it would be pretty, some have said 40 cents per share assuming a share structure similiar to what we have now...I think that's high, but let's go with it.  So another 125 million shares at 40 cents to raise $50 million.  

In the event that BETonMACE fails to meet the primary end point I think it'll be a firesale with Apabetalone being snapped up by some other entitity at a bargain basement price.

Now, with all that being said....I do not believe that BETonMACE will fail to meet the primary end point, I think it is going to succeed.  I like that Feurstein-Ratain rule (sp?) that suggests about a 60% chance of success if we apply the $300 million MCap threshold to 208, a CVD drug as opposed to a cancer drug to which the rule has been applied. 

Assuming TLD comes out in September we've already crossed this FR Rule's 4 month threshhold.....that happened back in May.  Even in June when RVXCF got down around $2 that still put Resverlogix's USD Mcap at around $400 million USD, well over the $300 million the rule requires.

So ultimately the question of what would happen if BETonMACE fails to meet the primary endpoint, hopefully it remains forever an academic and entirely moot (not mute which means incapable of speech) point. 

If 208 succeeds....then I think the market will more generously reward it's potential in other indications like Alzheimer's, CKD, Fabry's and whatever others show promise.  

All imo of course....