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Message: Re: What we know and what we don't.....

GAC/KK2 - Here is how my math and reasoning worked out.

This is an example of share numbers only. I am assuming this number of shares would be held until 16 Sept until our contest ends. The median share price for the contest is about $33 per share. If we don't make the Top Line numbers needed I am assuming the shares are basically worthless in both cases for this example.

For someone who has 50,000 shares and takes advantage of this situation with half of their position or 25,000 shares, here's how the numbers work. 

The 25,000 shares own when sold for $33 would generate $825,000

The other 25,000 shares when sold yesterday at $3.50 would give you $87,500 divided by $4 to give you 21,875 new units. Assuming the same $33 share price on 16 Sept the new number of shares would be 2 X 21875 for a total of 43,750 shares after the exercise of the warrants. 43,750 X $33 = $1,443,750 less (21,875 X $4.60 = $100,625) to exercise the warrants to leave you with $1,343,125 after all was said and done. 

The shares kept and sold would give you $825,000 and the shares sold and proceeds converted to units would give you $1,343,125  or $518,125 more in your pocket for the exact same amount of $$ at risk.

Since I plan on holding a portion of my holdings until the full data is disseminated I was comfortable doing what is described above with about half of my holdings.

The biggest risk I see in this is that if the trial fails the warrants will likely be totally worthless while the shares could be worth at least something. That's why I used the example of just half of the holds being converted into units. There is also a very good chance that most of the shares not converted into units will be sold prior to the full trial data being presented.

All IMO, dyodd

tada 

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