Awesome post iconoclast, I'm in pretty much lock step agreement....I would add that stochastics are in line with your view on RSI, pointing to overbought as well.

The only point of slight disagreement comes from this point: 

"The bad news is that on a fundamental basis, we *only have a financing announcement, before the long wait for the top line data". (*emphasis mine)

While that may in fact be correct, it also may not.  I think its a given that there has to be some financing news between now and Top-Line, the loan is due in a couple weeks.  But there is at least  potential for other announcements as well, as has already been discussed. 

Right off the top of my head I see possibilites for announcments on:  A US listing, Another ROFR or other liscensing deal, Possible media or analyst type coverage....and if I allow myself to dream, maybe even news of a buyout or BO offer.  

Not really nervous at all myself personally, expecting there to be volatility....expecting it makes dealing with it much easier.  

Cheers