Re: Technical strength versus fundamental weakness....
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 31, 2019 02:09AM
GAC,
Great post, always appreciate posts like yours to help me to "try" to understand and put substance behind my gut feelings about this opportunity.
And to be clear, I wasn't criticizing the technical analysis, just questioning validity of it given that there weren't quantifiable "operating" fundamentals based on operations/sales/P&L that you normally have with an operating business to "drive" the technical behaviors. But the technicals do quantify the investing behaviors that drive pps, so it is still VERY intersting to me. I would guess the technicals (purchase behaviors & pps) are driven by things like 1) confidence in the science, 2) past successes/failures, 3) management, 4) scientists involved, and 5) overall confidence that RVX-208 is someday going to be approved to help people and drive a huge new market, 6) pipeline, 7) the market opportunity, 8) to some degree, just a willingness to take a shot or "flyer" on a homerun for a betting man/woman given the possibilities (as opposed to playing black jack in Vegas?), etc .....
These are the things that drive my interest and confidence as well.I think the science looks great, the quality of the scientists involved looks great, past results look great even if off target with previous targeted endpoints, and the market potential is hugely attractive. We just don't have the "terra firma" of data for validating these beliefs yet, in the absence of operational fundamentals.
As such ... It still bothers me and boggles my mind that RVX-208 is not getting more attention given all of the above, while getting so close to the goal line?! ... people here have also mentioned RVX-208 fatigue though from time and past disappointments also, which makes some sense. But while some of the other things make me confident, the lack of attention/interest does spook me just a bit.
But back to the technicals, there seems to be enough confidence brewing, when combined with the timeline, that could well be building up pressure for a break out ... which would be niiiiiice :) And with all of the things that we can be critical about, including fundamentals & financing concerns PLUS poor communications, the other things seem to be strong enough to power thru the headwinds.
Dude, I am gonna be a nervous wreck waiting for real answers with data, once the timeline clicks past the "end of trial" milestone ... that is gonna be a longgggg 2 months for me haha ... so, here we are again, after much discussion, speculation, attempting to understand mgt behavior and what it means, assessing fundamentals & technicals, reading tea leaves, etc ... just simply waiting for data for a few more months.
Thanks for your sharing of thoughts, very helpful and enjoyable to read!
P.S. - I am going to try to get better at condensing into shorter posts also :)