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Message: No mention of efficacy again...

GAC - It is generally up to the investment bankers to bring the buyers to the company for info that would justify the price that that company agreed to pay. It is not DM that would say what price will be accepted. HL has a seat at the board, Eastern has 12%ish and other institutions have another 15ish%. DM is a spokes person, president and CEO but does not and will not control the vote.

The Beacon Report gives a value of $8.55 per share using only 2% market share for a current market cap of about $1.6 billion. That valuation does not give any value to CKD of dementia. The VL Report gives a value of $19 per share or a current market cap of close to $4 billion using only a 65% chance of success and a discount rate of 12%.

Apabetalone is a first in class drug with nothing in this class to compare it to. The cardio value of ABL may be worth $5 to (pick your own number) $14 billion. The dementia market is more than 2X's the cardio market and the CKD market is more than 3X's the cardio market. Doing some simple math that comes up to $30 billion. There is no question that success in BoM will cause a lot of revaluation by the analysts that have put out reports. Failure of BoM will certainly cause the share price to go the other way. If BoM is successful and the secondary studies show good or great potential there is a reasonable chance that $5 billion will be child's play.

This is a double blinded trial that is close to having the 250 narrow MACE needed. Let this  play out. We are almost there. Once we get to the finish line the Top Line Results will be disseminated, hopefully before the end of H1.  After that we will get the full trial results which will bring us to a point where a much more realistic valuations can be made.

IMO many on this board have not valued or have little or no idea of how to value the potential of the CKD and dementia legs of apabetalones potential worth. Heck even the Beacon Report didn't value them.

All IMO, dyodd

tada

 

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