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Message: Uncertainty? Yeah, there's some...but not much Fear or Doubt

Fear Uncertainty and Doubt or FUD for short...that triumvirate of emotions that can come from a plunging share price combined with worry about a company's prospects going forward.  Followers of TA look for periods of FUD to possibly buy/add if the technical picture looks bullish.

Taking a glass half full approach to the current situation it seems to me there certainly is some uncertainty, specifically around tomorrow's Jan 31st date and the Third Eye covenant that Resverlogix is on the cusp of breaching....on a loan that has used basically all the companies IP as collateral.  

I think old Joe Granville would look at this situation, the trading on a day like today....a day without any news and he'd say this is very bullish reaction.  I have little doubt that those buying are aware of the situation, but despite the uncertainty they were buying to such a degree that the PPS actually went up...nothing huge of course, 8 cents or about 2.5%, but nothing to sneeze at either.

The one caveat I would toss into this bullish narrative is that volume at less than 50K is hardly noteworthy....

This is where things really get interesting for me....tomorrow, if there's still no news, how will the market react then?  Uncertainty is easy to deal with when the PPS is holding steady or climbing a bit.  But mix in some volume and a falling PPS, that's when Fear and Doubt can inject themselves into the equation.

If I'm a player who's short 100K shares and having trouble covering off (likely at a sizeable loss already)....tomorrow I think could present an opportunity.  As I've commented before, borrowing and dumping shares tomorrow to enough of a degree to drop the PPS would have the potential to shake free some shares in my opinion.

I was seriously toying with idea of sellign some shares today (Wednesday) based on the prospects of this happening....freeing up a decent amount of capital so that if it did occur, that I'd have the resources to buy back an even greater number of shares for the same amount.  

5,000 shares sold at $3.20 would generate $16,000 less fees.....at $3 that $16K would buy back over 5,300 shares, at $2.75 over 5,800

Its because of that math that I decided against it, a few hundred more shares was not worth what I considered to be a huge risk.  That risk is that news comes out tomorrow before the bell announcing some kind of resolution around this covenant.  

If the situation of short selling to take the PPS does happen though I think its important to note that you can't sell something unless there are others buying.  Like back in June of 2013 when Assure results missed their prescribed end point....the PPS did crater, but it quickly found support in and around the 75 cent area....those who bought the pain back then have done extremely well. 

Bring on tomorrow's trading....I can't wait :-)

 

 

 

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