"Bear, why do you say "very likely past...right now"?"

It is all based on the assumption that there is a lag period in event adjudication AND that adjudication has already begun. Tada touched on this in an earlier post. IF the current tally reported in the corporate updates from Sept 2018 to current represents adjudicated events, AND since management previously predicted end of dosing (interpreted as hitting 250 adjudicated MACE events) by end of 2018, then this could mean that the total number of confirmed (adjudicated) AND pending unconfirmed (not yet adjudicated) events already exceed 250.

It all depends on how quickly they adjudicate new events. If there is a backlog that takes 60-90 days per event, then it is very possible under that scenario that #250 has happened and just needs to go through the process. Hence the notion that #250 could be confirmed any day now. Yes, KBC makes a good point that could represent an alternative scenario of all 250 events needing to undergo adjudication. But if they are not already adjudicating, how do they know they achieved 250 confirmed if they don't know they've achieved 250 confirmed? There is a lot of room for interpretation in current company statements.

Assuming that adjudication is already ongoing and that hitting 250 confirmed adjudicated events triggers end of dosing, it is unclear what will take longer to close out the trial: 1) adjudication of the remaining events beyond 250, which company suggests will take 2-3 months; or 2) completion of the last patient safety follow up visits. Pretty much EVERY BETonMACE trial design slide/poster indicates that these visits would take 4 to 16 weeks. 

Tick tock!

BearDownAZ