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Message: Re: What impact would a PR like this have?

Thanks for the great discussion on this thread everyone. I realize now I may have been mistaken in my understanding of how the trial events are tallied. My previous (incorrect?) understanding was that when 250 unconfirmed 1st MACE events (I'll call them raw events) occurred, that this triggered the end of the dosing, the beginning of patient follow ups and the beginning of the adjudication process. So when Resverlogix stated in Sept 2018 and Nov 2018 that end of dosing was expected by end of 2018, I interpreted this to mean that 250 raw events were anticipated by the end of 2018 and that adjudication would just begin.

From the discussion in this thread (as well as prior discussions that I may have ignored/forgotten), I now realize that there is a good possibility that the 250 event trigger to end dosing and start the follow up and trial close out process may be 250 confirmed/adjudicated events. Therefore, as others have suggested in this thread, if and when we hear that 250 events and end of dosing has occurred, this means that out of the X number of raw events that 250 confirmed/adjudicated events have occurred. This may mean that back in Sept 2018 and Nov 2018, that they were anticipating having 250 confirmed/adjudicated 1st MACE events by end of 2018. And any of the unconfirmed/raw 1st MACE events that transpired during the time to adjudicate the first 250 would then finish being evaluated in the final adjudication process to move some of these from the raw/unconfirmed to the confirmed/adjudicated category.

This is actually a big shift in my thinking. I now fully acknowledge that BETonMACE is very likely past 250 unconfirmed/raw events right now, and that any day now the adjudication process could catch up to move enough of these across the line to cross the 250 confirmed/adjudicated event threshhold. Previously, I thought that it was the 250 raw/unconfirmed events was the trigger. If this new thinking (or at least my new thinking catching up to others) is true, then the trial will be much more advanced in the completion process by the time we hear about the 250 events/end of dosing because these 250 will all be adjudicated/confirmed. This explains why 250 events is both the trigger for completion but also how we could end up at somewhere in the 250+ category once the remaining raw/unconfirmed events finish being evaluated and move into the adjudicated/confirmed category.

Thank you everyone for the discussion here and helping me in my understanding.

BearDownAZ

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