Re: The Pfizer connection...
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 30, 2018 10:06PM
GAC - In the last 28 months we have had 3 AGM's. I have noticed a definite change in the confidence of the RVX management when joining small group discussions before and after the AGM's as each year went by. I can't put my finger on it but something changed in the last 24 months with regard to discussions with BP and we are now seeing things like PFE's involvement with ZEL and RVX. IMO this has not gone unnoticed by other BP's.
Contrary to the view of the obstacles you mention, I see them more of a positive. The ZCC ownership of the RPS's is not a problem at all. A number of posters on this board have put many many examples forward of deals done with pharma companies when there are royalties involved on the targeted drugs. In the one post with many examples it actually looked like it was the norm to do a BP deal with a royalty paid to another party because of some financing arrangements made at earlier stages of that drugs development. WRT HL's rights to China and the territory's, that may take a little finagling but could actually become a benefit to any BP looking at us that may have other products that they want distributed in that geographic area. The ROFR is not an issue at all, not in the least. If a value for the US market is established HL can pony up and have that territory. If not then they get their $8 million back, plain and simple. Unlike some I believe just the US market for RVX208 to be in excess of $6 billion annually. That's $2.5 billion more than HL's market cap. If HL wanted to step up and pay for that value we will all be happy.
Dr Kedeckles? Valuation while at Beacon Securities put RVX at $12/shr with just 2% market penetration. What happens if a %RRR for BETonMACE comes in at 40% or 50%? In a situation like that the 2% market penetration would likely be adjusted dramatically upwards. As long as apabetalone passes this trial that market penetration number will likely increase. If it doesn't pass the trial then nothing really matters anyway.
Just for fun I took the 12 million patients noted in the last news release with 40% market penetration and $5,000 in annual cost of drug. It comes out to $24 billion in annual sales. To see if I was blowing smoke up my own back side I looked at Lipitor sales when it first came out. Remember now Lipitor was a first in class drug at the time, like we will be. It was or is the standard of care then and now, along with a couple of other statins that were approved after Lipitors entry. RVX says they have a 6 to 10 year lead on the competition in this market. So far there is a clean safety profile on 208.
Most analysts are using a 60% chance of passing this trial so not much will change until the Top Line results come out. If, and that's a huge if, we pass this trial that market penetration % will likely increase. The increase will likely be much more than some could ever imagine. Maybe not 40% but certainly more than 2%. Put your pencils to paper yourself and see if $9 per share is remotely reasonable in that instance.
It is likely at this stage of the trial that more than 1 BP has at least had preliminary talks with RVX. It is likely that any company with any interest at all has noticed that PFE has now been mentioned with RVX or ZEL 3 times now.
Bottom line, the BETonMACE trial will have to read out the Top Line before any "guesses" can be reliably made. Obstacles can turn into opportunities and don't be to quick on the draw and sell yourself out to cheaply.
All IMO, dyodd.
tada