Re: Statistical Considerations
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 09, 2018 09:57AM
"We have now 6 postive DSMB recommendations to continue with the trial as is , no SAFETY concerns or Efficacy issues after over 2 years of dosing. The DSMB could have easily pulled the plug at anytime if they saw any safety concerns ie alevated alts , or if the data did not show any promise whats so ever"
I caution you and everyone else into reading too much into the "no efficacy concerns" part of the six DSMB reports. My personal opinion is a very conservative one and I interpret this to mean that apabetalone is not causing an increased incidence of 3-point MACE (the primary outcome). Beyond that, my opinion is that it is all conjecture. Plenty of recent cardiovascular outcomes trials in diabetes patients have gone to completion and found to have no significant effect to reduce the 3-point MACE primary outcome. In my opinion, a potential interim statistical analysis (i.e. the sample size re-estimation analysis at 75% of planned events = ~188 events) will be the first opportunity for the DSMB to intervene based on apabetalone's ability to decrease the incidence of the 3-point MACE primary outcome compared to placebo.
Here's a few good resources on recent diabetes cardiovascular outcomes trials:
Recent cardiovascular outcome trials of antidiabetic drugs: A comparative analysis https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5240079/
Cardiovascular outcome studies with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists—what will REWIND add?https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5733310/
New Treatments for Type 2 Diabetes: Implications of Cardiovascular Outcome Trials https://www.acponline.org/system/files/documents/about_acp/chapters/fl/17mtgs/pratley_new_treatments_for_type_2_diabetes.pdf
"Then after 2 years the FDA approves US site for the trial, . Before approving the trial did the FDA not see the trial results before making that late decision to add US patients ???( maybe the FDA did not want to be late to the party)"
That is pure conjecture. We have no idea what Resverlogix, the Clinical Sterring Committee and the DSMB showed the FDA. This is a blinded trial, so no one but the DSMB has access to the unblinded data. Per the DSMB news releases "Resverlogix, the clinical steering committee, and all investigators remain blinded to the trial data." While it is a possibility that the DSMB shared some unblinded data with the FDA in the process of FDA approval, this is nothing more than a conjecture.
"Then we have Hepalink in December making their very large investment/gamble on the trial, Were they privy to see more data from management that made thier decision easy to make, Did Hepalink see something they liked before makeing that $100 million investment or was it just a hunch that maybe the trial will work."
You do understand what a blinded trial is, don't you? See above.