Re: Successful CANTOS Inflammation Trial Supports Rationale for Resverlogix' Ongoing BETonMACE Trial
posted on
Aug 29, 2017 04:14PM
Yes, it is good news about Novartis' CANTOS findings re inflammation and CVD. Helps to validate apabetalone and BoM. Also apabetalone is multimodal impacting 6 different systems including inflammation.
However, Eastern could easily end up with "everything" and then hire the RVX team to take all trials to completion.
Don has only 4 months (it will actually be 3 months or less) to a lock in a deal that will pay out $66.8 million Cdn. With Hepalink in the equation it could get more complex. However, I would imagine that the Hepalink rights could just continue under Eastern and they would retain their regional rights.
While I used to believe that the next deal would be far higher than the Hepalink deal because of the knowledge that has been gained scientifically I think it is fair to say that Don has not put himself in a position of power relative to a suitor. They will know Don has a vice squeezing his temples and it will get tighter every day.
Great that there is an LOI but he also referred to other deals which says to me things are far from locked in...he is still whaffling a bit but trying to sound positive.
The new investor must not just assume the $66.8 LOC but also fund the balance of the trial and beyond that until either a big player jumps in or until they have approval to go to market and I understand it often takes two years or more after a successful phase lll to get to market. So it will be a very long time before cash starts to flow.
Don and his team will need very sharp pencils and a very convincing arguement about future revenue flows.
As always, it appears that incredible science is happening in this little Canadian biotech but it has always been underfunded.
I'm long on the stock and just letting it sit and see what happens. However, and this is not investment advice, if I was looking to invest in RVX now, unless I was a serious gambler I'd wait until this deal and new financing are complete before I come in.
Now, correct me if I am wrong, but I believe when Zenith was formed it was spun out as a wholely independent private company. Even though Eastern/KD has a very large block of shares in Zenith the Citi loan is an RVX issue and has nothing to do with Zenith.
Therefore, if Don loses RVX in the next 4 months he still has Zenith. Hopefully they'' cut his pay in half.
GLTA
Toinv