Very good discussion topic raised by Tada.

In my opinion, if you take a very big step back and compare the value of RVX today versus where it was back in 2014 I think it was when they got that first loan, the really is no comparison although granted it is also difficult to make a comparison.  Yet I will try...

There are basically two sources of information out there that I have seen that can be used to make some sort of analytical assessment or inference on what RVX is worth today compared to 3 years ago when they first got that Citibank loan.  The 1st is the NPV projections that RVX management made themselves mid last year and the 2nd source is published analyst projections.

For the first source of info, I am referring to slide 31 from a presention DM gave on or around June 13, 2016 timeframe.  This is the slide that shows NPV projections made by RVX based on their achieving certain Milestone Valuations.  Per the table below, I have re-written the following projections for various Milestones achieved for the combo of ACS, Dibetes, and CKD at a >25% RRR.  

                                                                                         > 25% RRR

Milestone                                                     ACS + Diabetes          ACS + CKD       NPV Total

Phase III EU                                                        1,044B                        0.717B            1,761B

Phase III EU Completion                                      2,363B                        1,554B            3,917B

Market Approval EU & Phase III US                      2,686B                        1,763B            4,449B

Market Approval EU & Phase III US Completion    3,458B                        2,243B            5,701B

Full Market Approval                                            3,828B                        2,474B            6,302B     

Now, I am not sure what the difference is between a Phase III completion, and a Market Approval status, but if we assume they are the same, then the contribution of a Phase III US trial is 4,449B - 3,917B = 532M at this stage and could be somewhat less if there is a difference between a Completion versus Approved status.  Finally, if I add the Phase III US contribution of 532M to the Phase III EU of 1,761B we should have an NPV = 2,293B.  So let's be conservative and call this a 2B company today at least on paper again using RVX generated figures as the source.  

Following the logic, and keeping the math simple, there are approximately 100M shares outstanding.  If the market accepted a 2B valuation (which obviously it has not), then the SP would = $20/ share.  Yet it trades at less than 1/10th of that level today. 

The other source of data we could use is the analyst projections that have been made over the last 3 years.  Despite the sources, there is still very good info and projections made that is worth reading.  I am not going to revisit any of that here, but suffice to say that over the last 3 years, projections have been raised from $3.50 to $6.50 to north of $12 as some one recently posted and, regardless, these estimate were all made without the recent FDA approval.  Bottom line here is that these estimates would also be very conservative and would likely be much higher yet given the recent US FDA approval of the Phase III trial with only minor modifications whatever they are.  In other words, anaylsts therefore also think the value of RVX has at least doubled today from where it was 3 years ago if not much more.  

Recall that 3 years ago when RVX got that first Citibank loan, a Phase III trial was not even designed yet so it was still far from underway.  While there is no row on the table above to assess the value of what RVX was worth way back then at the time of the Citibank loan after essentially a Phase II near miss, suffice to say that it was significantly less than the 1,761B in the first row of data above.   

I may need Bear or someone to clarify whether or not ACS, Diabetes, and CKD are still all in play to the level that was planned 3 years ago or not, but again, the value of RVX no matter how you slice it worth tremendously more today than it was 3 years ago when they rather easily got a very nice loan the first time.   And so it also follows that it should be actually much more easy today, in my opinion, given all the progress made, than it was 3 years ago, to secure financing again and therefore we should NOT be overly worried about if they can, but perhaps how, or in what form that financing will come?  So for these reasons, I agree with Tada that RVX is not going down the path of bankrupcy unless of course FA or future results don't pan out to expecations and even then still maybe not.   

It's totally my opinion too, as others have also suggested, that DM is not going to agree to any deal short of the numbers I just derived above give or take.  And so things may just be at a stand still perhaps until the FA is complete and the unknown becomes more known and this may be the single issue standing in the way of getting some sort of deal done that is favorable to RVX shareholders.  

In other words, given the significantly greater value of RVX today, compared to 3 years ago, if DM wanted to raise money, he could likely do it today in one way shape or form.  The fact that he hasnt yet, (IMO), is because he is holding all of his cards close to the vest, because he understands the science, and therefore believes that time is actually on his/our side and not the other way around despite this financing "cloud."  But if the timing doesn't work as hoped, and things get delayed, then I blieve he'll get the money easy enough even if it is not as favorable as we would all like.  In the big scheme of things, it's actually somewhat of a nit in my view.  

Well, I hope this contributes to this very good discussion and I welcome everyone's input and please do your own due dililgence.

10BagR