I don't know what the numbers are, but let's go with that 12% event rate....and put it at 12 months.  Meaning that SOC treatment historically results in a 3 point MAC event 12% of the time.  I'm pulling these numbers out of the air....but I think the point I'm making will be valid regardless...just do the same equation with different numbers.

So if we have 1,000 paitents, that would mean 120 MACE in a year....

However half of those 1,000 are taking Apabetalone and the other half is getting a placebo.  We would expect that those taking sugar pills, (well probably not sugar if they're diabetic but you get the point) to continue having an event rate in and around that 12% mark, perhaps a bit less accounting for the Placebo Effect.  But 12% would mean 60 MACE within that 12 month period.  But if the dosed group has an event rate much lower...say at 8%, then that would translate to 40 MACE.

That would suggest that the longer it takes to get to futility the better....as it would take longer to get to the 125 event trigger point. 

However I know I am anxious for the FA to come out....but only if its positive obviously.  We all seem to think that a thumbs up on the FA, that it could provide a big catalyst.  The flip side though is that the hourglass is emptying once again after getting refilled with $10 million worth of sand.....

Its intriguing and interesting...and as the old chinese proverb goes, "may you live in interesting times"....I also believe that's a curse as well :-)