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Message: Re: New analyst coverage with a $12.50 valuation

Do they?  Its not drilled down to a great degree, but they do explain how they came up with the number:

 

We have increased our value on Apabetalone, and thereby Resverlogix as a whole from CAD 900 million to CAD 1,300 million or CAD 12.50 per share. The increase in valuation is based on the ongoing successful enrolment of the Phase III trial BETonMACE as well as an increase of potential pricing for apabetalone. Apabetalone clearly has blockbuster potential.

We choose not to value the company’s total technology platform and potential additional indications for apabetalone. We feel that potential value of its platform and additional indications offers an additional upside potential. With the enrolment of more than half the needed patients for the Phase III clinical trial we have increased the probability of success to 46% from 35%.

We expect an approval of apabetalone in the US in 2021 as well as approval in the EU and Japan. We ascribe CAD 12.50 per share to apabetalone for high risk CVD, Diabetes mellitus and CKD based on a risk-adjusted NPV analysis of estimated its net income in the next 10 years, assuming approval and a 2021 launch. An approval of apabetalone for any Orphan Diseases expected to be up to one year earlier provided positive data.

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