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Message: Re: Short interest creeps up again.....
3
Apr 20, 2017 12:20PM

General 360 wrote: "so, narmac's question still needs answering: how much money we need to get to the Fall of 2018? What additional number if shares would need to be added to the pot to cover us, And when a PP takes place it's a rarity for share price to increase,,,, can you name a few? , maybe you can answer the questions instead of pointing to rules - which are not applicable in this case."

"how much money we need to get to the Fall of 2018?" 

If the burn rate stays at ~$3.1 million/month, and you consider Fall 2018 as October 2018, then it is 18 months (May 2017 to October 2018, inclusive), for $55.8 million. Burn rate subject to change though.

"What additional number if shares would need to be added to the pot to cover us?"

If you assume that the above is true, and if you assume that the PP is at $2.67 like the Hepalink/Eastern deal from April 2015, then that is ~20,600,000 shares.

"And when a PP takes place it's a rarity for share price to increase,,,, can you name a few?"

I don't think anyone is arguing that a PP won't cause dilution. Also, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the share price will increase if the only news is that of a PP. 

"maybe you can answer the questions instead of pointing to rules - which are not applicable in this case.""

Narmac stated "I wont type where I think our price will be when the PP is announced," and "it looks like a fair bit of dilution no matter what way the deal goes down. It's just my opinion,,, I don't see any way around substantial dilution to all existing shareholders." However, let me remind you that nothing is inked yet and DM has made several statements before about pursuing many different financing options (summarized below). Therefore, Narmac was warned of rule #5 (Unsubstantiated claims of grandeur or impending doom are best left to Nostradamus) because Narmac pretty much stated that the only way the company may get money to continue operations is to do a private placement and that is was going to happen by the end of April. Although DM may have made a previous statement to the effect of anticipating doing a PP within the next month, that is all rumor until it actually happens. We all know that previous statements made in 2016 about a regional deal happening "soon" didn't come to fruition. Safe harbor rules and all.

Financial Options presented at Corporate Update (in order of DM’s preference):

Co-development, RVX-208 or follow on compounds: Partnering the future development of apabetalone or follow on compounds with a major pharmaceutical company. Large upfront payment. Future expenses covered by pharma.

Licensing, Regional: Licensing of regional areas or emerging markets, the goal would be to raise substantial upfront revenues. Several negotiations are underway.

Licensing, Indications: By utilizing alternative formulations and delivery mechanisms, apabetalone can be licensed out for various orphan indications such as Facio Scapulo Humeral Dystrophy.

Partnering Arrangements: First right of refusal. An upfront payment for a potential M&A transaction post phase 3 completion.

Private Placements: At-market priced equity financing, four month hold on stock price. Warrants may be included depending on market conditions. Fastest source of cash.

Public Offering Equity: Utilizing an underwriter for a public offering. Potentially an IPO on a major US exchange. Slow and expensive.

Debt Financing: Several firms offer Life Science companies debt facilities while the company awaits clinical trial results. Usually very high interest rates.

 

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