Re: Zenith Payoff of Citi?
posted on
Apr 06, 2017 10:17AM
I agree that the market doesn't seem to see the funding as a big deal thus far. I think it may be in part due to the fact that it can be argued that while Eastern and HL are both investors in RVX they could in fact become rivals for securing and / or extending the LoC (I've gone on about that before so I won't again). If this is true however, the competition I suspect would keep the cost of this (dilution) in check to some degree. To BDAZ's point about waiting for the futility analysis "inflection point", I would agree that reaching this point would raise the upfront value in a CVR but how will that compare relative to any dilution we could experience in the interim. Besides which a natural milestone payment in a CVR might be one for a positive futility analysis. I also totally agree with Stock regarding getting RVX on a path in which whatever positive is going evolve out of RVX gets to people in need a quickly as possible.
Now I am going to speculate a little (ok a lot). I was running out of time yesterday so didn't mention Teva in my blurb about prospective purchasers. As many of you know Teva is the largest producer and seller of generic drugs in the world, they also do a great deal of drug development. Teva is based in Israel. What if Don was working on the regional deal "inflection point" that was promised for the end of 2016 and that grew into a more global conversation. The Middle East would be a natural regional deal for Teva but the whole of RVX would also fit nicely into their program and they could swallow RVX without blinking. When I asked Don a couple of AGM's ago if he had talked to Teva seeing that Crestor was coming off patent and RVX had filed paper on rosuvastatin/RVX-208 he shut me down very quickly.
As I said pure speculation but regardless of who Don may or may not be talking to, a regional deal discussion turning into a takeover discussion would explain a lot of the delays on the funding as well as missed "inflection points".