Early 2017 - RVX back to its old form....
posted on
Mar 17, 2017 01:02AM
Its been commented on before, particularily by SF I believe, that RVX has a history of making some nice gains early in the year. By my reckoning of the chart four of the past five years have seen the stock move higher in the early months of the year, with the lone exception being 2016....last year.
I wish I could post a chart here....but no matter.
2012 - The PPS started around the $1.40 mark and by February had climbed to the $2 area....a gain of about 40%
2013 - A exceptionally good start to the year, and a lousy finish which I won't bother with. January 2013 started around $1.60 and with some pauses and pullbacks along the way by May it was in the neighbourhood of $3.80...a gain of over 130%
2014 - After the big drop 2014 started out at less than 50 cents, but by Feb was up around 80 pennies for a decent gain around 60%.
2015 - This was an epic climb....from down around 50 cents to start the year, to a high touching in and around $3....a 500% return.
2016 - The lone exception....the year started at $1.70 or so and by Sept had fallen all the way to $1.20...even touching down around $1.10 in the summer months. It did however close the year strong, getting back in and around $1.70 to end off the year.
2017 - Which brings us to the present....the run we've been on has been from that $1.70 area to start, and now we're at $2.35...a climb of over 35% so far....and here's hoping we're in for another run like 2015 or even better. A 500% climb off of $1.70 where we started the year would put us around $8.50....
I think most would agree that the key driver behind that move in early 2015 was the HL deal, priced at $2.67. That deal was announced in April of course, and the run was over....those who'd bought as the end of 2014 or very early 2015 saw some massive short term percentage gains....but those who waited to see what was driving the increase, by the time the news came out the gains were all done.
Now we are seeing a nice surge in the PPS once again....but nobody seems to know what is driving it. Trading has been heavier of late, but nothing like early 2015 when volumes were getting into the 500K range frequently, peaking over a million during several days in April of that year.
A quick note on my favourite topic....short interest. Back in 2015 the year started with the short position at just 8,500 but by Jan 15th it was over 80K. After that though it came way down, and by February 28th it was just 4,000 with the PPS still under $1 at about 80 cents. And that's when the PPS really exploded higher, and short interest did as well....by April the number of shares short had ballooned to over 200,000....similar to where we were recently.
I think if we continue to see the short # drop that it increases the chances that we could be looking at another run like 2015, and hopefully even better....