Re: ... a number of things come to mind
posted on
Nov 08, 2015 10:13PM
Great post Kelsee and great viewpoints all around from many posters lately. Keep it up!
A few have brought up Esperion (ESPR) as a "skyrocketing" example. Esperion has an LDL-lowering drug ETC-1002. For those not familiar, ESPR IPO's in June 2013 at ~$14 USD. They had already run Phase 1 and some Phase 2 trials by the time I took a small position in early August 2014. I think they had just announced the results of another successful Phase 2 in September 2014 and it just took off. In the following 6 months, it peaked as high as $121 USD. I bailed around $20.5 after the first bump up in late September, never expecting it to continue its ridiculous climb from a market cap of $350 million to over $2.5 billion.
Of course, the path of Resverlogix and RVX-208 has been a lot more bumpy. And ESPR was on Nasdaq. However, ESPR is a great example of how the fever can take over and override logic. I never expected ESPR to continue to rise after I sold. It just didn't make sense. I refused to buy back in and I regret it (hindsight always 20/20). It wasn't until the PCSK9 antibody therapies got approved and the ETC-1002 FDA talks were disclosed did reality set back in and bring ESPR back to where it is now.
What will tomorrow bring? The following week? Month? Year? So hard to tell. There are knowns and unknowns. There are tangibles and intangibles. There is logical valuation and wildly emotional speculative evaluation. As Kelsee said, " a number of things come to mind for me as to why we are seeing a buying trend working its' way in here..." Good night and GLTA.
BearDownAZ