Biotechs like Resverlogix are driven by ''projections and emotions''
posted on
Sep 09, 2015 11:13PM
I stole that line from a write up I saw on another biotech company....it wasn't about Resverlogix but I took the liberty of swapping out the other name for Resverlogix.
Someone (chicago I think) made reference to RVX's rise back earlier this year, as being the result of ''irrational exhuberance''. I don't think there was anything ''irrational'' about it....which begs the question: Is there such a thing as ''rational'' exhuberance?
Were shareholders old and new excited? Sure....the China patent, the deal with Hepa, the upcoming phase III clinical trials. Lots too be excited about.
But I didn't see anything irrational in the trading. My opinion might have been different if we'd been seeing volumes hitting close to 10 million or more on a daily basis. As it happened we only had a couple days with around 1 single million trading....about 1% of the outstanding share count. I don't see that as being irrational....I see it more as a lack both supply and demand. At that time demand was greater than the supply so the PPS moved up sharply for about 3 and a half months, going from about 50 cents to a little over $3 at the high.
Now we look to me to be setting up for another period of heightened demand, and if that does come to pass....instead of launching from a base around .50 cents....we'll be moving off a base in and around the $2 mark.
Rodman and Renshaw is a big confernce, but only a handful of companies will grab some attention....here's hoping we're one of them.