More chart gazing....cup and handle
posted on
Aug 14, 2015 02:37AM
I still can't post a chart....but pull up a 3 year if you want to follow.
I'm seeing the potential for us to be forming a very well known chart pattern, a cup (or bowl shape) and handle. Don't worry too much that the bottom isn't nicely rounded. Basically this chart pattern is a relection of the psychology that plays out fairly often with stocks. The left hand side represents a rise spurred by market exctiement, which in our case was the anticipation of the phase II trail results. This rise is then followed by a drop...a sharp drop in RVX's case caused by the failure to meet defined end points.
The bowl forms because, despite whatever bad news caused the drop....buyers step in and provide support. After trading mostly sideways for a period of time, the stock again starts to climb...up in and around the same area where it was on the left hand side. And this is when psychology comes into play....psychology perhaps abetted by some manipulation. As the stock regains the levels it was at on the left side, some will sell....happy with any of a small profit, break even, or a small loss.
As I noted...it wouldn't suprise me if there were those who used short selling to engender the feeling of angst amongs those who've held on for months or years staring at losses....having endured the pain of being underwater for a long period its not hard to understand why some bail out.
That of course is the handle....but instead of dropping down to previous lows the stock takes off some time after the handle has formed and moves up to a newer and higher trading range.
I strongly believe that's what we're seeing, and those who've been buying of late (mea culpa) I strongly believe will soon be richly rewarded.
BTW....thinking about my Dad this evening led me to put his pic up as my avatar. I'll take it down in a day or 2.