WARNING!!! This is going to be one of my long winded stream of conciouness posts, so unless you have a beverage in hand (preferably alcoholic) and a lot of patience....well you might want to just skip it.

We all know, or at least we should know, that old saw about how to make $$$ in the markets...you have to buy fear and sell greed. Sounds simple enough, buy when the retail herd is scared and dumping, then sell when they're falling over each other convinced the stock they're buying can do nothing but go higher and higher.

Now flash back to December, when RVX was trading around 50 cents. Were those who were buying, were they buying fear? Honestly, I don't think so. I don't doubt for a moment that there was some tax loss selling going on....but the volumes were so light its hard for me to characterize the selling back in December as fear based.

If there was fear based selling it happened back in June/July of 2013 in the wake of the phase II trial failing to meet its stated end points. My read of the chart tells me that was retail investors selling out of fear, and "smart money" investors buying that same fear...and loading up cheap.

Now fast forward to April of 2015, when the PPS got up around $3.00....was that an example of "smart money" type investors selling greed? Judgement call on my part, but I still don't think so. Although I will allow that it does appear to have some of the hallmarks of that kind of activity. Just looking at the volumes, they were significantly higher in April than they were in the months prior, or the months after. DM was touting an orphan indication that was going to "shake up" the market both on BNN and at the Richmond Club.

But even though the volume was substantially higher this past April, it was nowhere near the level it reached in the summer of 2013 when the Assure trial failed to meet its primary endpoint. Back then the volume was hitting over 2.5 million some days and even went over 5 million for at least one session. By comparison in April of this year we didn't even see one single day of 1 million shares trading.

I'm probably no different from many here, kicking myself for not taking some $$$ off the table when the PPS was trading at $2.80 or higher.....Had I done that, and if the subsequent trading we've seen remaimed little changed, I could have bought my shares back at a discount or measurably increased my holdings.

And that's the dilemma....Did I (and others) fall victim to greed by refusing to sell, and even buying more at higher prices? Guilty as charged, mea culpa.

Retailers see a climbing share price as justification for their bullish opinion. Without it, buying is harder. Buying when the news is good, the PPS climbing and expectations for the future seem rosy....that's easy, and its greed based buying. But if you're playing the game smart (which I didn't do) you're supposed to sell that greed.

But of course there's fear in selling too. Who wants to sell a stock for $2.80 or even $3+ if you see it as having potential to climb to $5, $10....maybe even $20 or higher?

So what happens? Retailers hold their shares, possibly even buying more at higher prices...everyone gets real excited. Then the invetibable quiet period comes and things cool off.....and with RVX we saw short interest jump in April from under 80,000 to almost 220,000. To put that into some context, today we didn't even trade 20,000 shares. That kind of selling is going to obviously hammer a share price. And short interest is still up over 160,000...double where it was in March and exponentially higher than the 4,000 it was at in February.

That's the difficulty of course....greed and fear are constantly in play, to varying degrees. While there was a degree of greed in April, I don't think it was anywhere near an extreme. Comparing it to the summer of 2013 I'd put the degree of fear based selling at 8 or 9 back then, and the degree of greed based buying/holding in April at 6 or 7.

Going forward my read of the tea leaves is that RVX is getting its ducks lined up to make an even bigger splash this fall. Just the way they're positioning things now, talking about the fall as if we're already in Sept/Oct.

Commencing in the fall of 2015, Resverlogix has initiated a Phase 3 clinical

If that had been written in September...October, Novemeber or later, it makes sense. Starting in the fall Reservlogix had commenced. Okay....starting back in the fall that's when it started. But we haven't reached the fall of 2015 yet. My old English profs would have a field day with that sentence. It would be like me saying....I have initiated the purchasing of more shares of RVX, and I start next week.

Maybe I'm making too much of it, but it seems to me that 'the powers that be' are already gearing up for the fall in anticipation of talking to a wider audience, beyond us agoracom bleacher bums.

I think Mr. Market is going to be putting RVX in play, and by that I mean the volumes and price movement, combined with fundamental data and news, that it will be such that retail investors will be getting excited and greedy again.

I will however throw in one caveat to my prediction/expectation...and it centres on short interest. I do think the number of shorted shares needs to drop significantly before Mr. Market puts RVX "in play". I do expect that to happen, but if it doesn't I'll be surprised to see us make any sizeable gains.

*Disengage stream of conciousness program.