Champagne tastes and beer budgets......
posted on
Jul 14, 2015 11:46PM
Cost is a relative thing....I'll relate another story about my late great father to illustrate.
When Dad was in his 50s, and I in my 20s....we both played basketball in a men's league in the burbs east of Toronto. The level of ball was alright, comparable to an average HS Sr. team. You might think a guy in his 50's, that he couldn't hang in there with 20 and 30 somethings...but Dad did and them some. It helped that we was an ultra jock, in 1960 his team had gone to the Canadian national finals, which they lost...If they'd won he would have represented Canada at the Olympics. Even at 55 or so he was right around the top third in the league in scoring, you could count on him to score 8-12 points game in game out.
Your's truly? I was no slouch, my best finish was 3rd in the leauge in points...in HS and up until my early 20s I could dunk. Not bad for a white guy just under 6'....but of course you had to give me 10 or so tries before I'd finally flush one.
One night after a game when Dad and I were on the same team, we hit a local watering hole for a couple beers with some of the guys. This was an OLD OLD OLD establishment, it had been around since the 50s at least, the Glen Eagles it was called, and it burned down in 1990 (thanks google). They served beer in those little short and thin glasses. My Dad and I ordered three each, and reaching for his wallet he said, "I'll get this". When he was told the cost was $4.50 his jaw almost dropped..."These are DIME glasses"!?!?! I told him to get with the times (he rarely drank) and he explained that he knew they wouldn't be just 10 cents, but he couldn't believe they were 75 cents each, he figured 40 maybe 50 cents.....ah inflation.
Which brings me to retail investors....we love to buy cheap, but despite buying cheap we like to think we've gotten a bargain. A fine bottle of Merlot for the price of a bottle of Mogan David.
I'm an asshole though....a lot of retail investors can be convinced that something is cheap with promises about the future and big gains coming soon, that doesn't work on me. Tell me about a company and the first thing I will look at is the chart....if I see that the stock has risen sharply of its lows, going up 100, 200, 500% or more....thanks, I'll pass.
There are thousands of public companies to invest in just on the North American markets. I will make an exception however, when it comes to companies paying a dividend. I'll still look at the chart for signs that its being distributed (dumped) high....but even if its well off the lows I might very well still buy, but only if I don't read smart money selling in the chart.
We've all bought in here, at whatever averages....based on the belief we were getting in low, buying cheap, getting a bottle of Dom Perignon but paying the price of a 12 cans of Schlitz. And now we're waiting for Mr. Market to reveal our genius, to pull off the Schlitz label and to reveal the DP insignia on our cans. Is it there? It might be....but if it is, well Mr. Market has a lot of tools at his disposal to try and get us to sell those cans back to him for less than what they're going to be worth when the true label is revealed. Then of course we can buy them back, no problem....just pay the champagne price.
Who is Mr. Market? To me, as regards RVX, Mr. Market includes DM and other company officials, certainly the MMs, Eastern and Hepalink also fall into that category now in my opinion. They have levers that can be pulled to either wow and excite us residents of the Emerald City, or they can have a witch come screaming by on her broom to scare us and send us scampering.
I just got a message recently suggesting I look at NBG, actually it sought my opinion on it...but really I think it was designed to entice me. It fits what I look for in terms of the chart, but digging deeper I quickly formed the opinion that this is a death spiral stock that is only dead cat bouncing because short selling bears are circling a dying carcass. And with uptick rules and the fixed reward nature of short selling, bears need bulls to drink some kool-ade to maximize their gains.
Anyway enough stream of conciousness....less posting from me as of, three, two, one...NOW :-)