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Message: Re: The Eternal Bulls
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Oct 15, 2010 05:35PM

Oct 15, 2010 05:54PM
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Oct 15, 2010 06:03PM

QEC evaporating?...I'm not even going to comment on a comment that ridiculous.

In the last 5 years, anytime there is any hint of something that can be used against this stock, it will be. At the moment, it's the enviornmental issues etc...yet the government has repeated that they will produce this resource and no moratorium will take place. I find this upcoming study a bit funny, seeing as there have been boat loads to say that there is no connection with fracking and contaminated water. Over a million wells drilled in other places by top notch companies with no pollution...TLM being one of them and people in Quebec think that it's brand new. Mind you, I'd be a little worried if I was in Quebec, but if I did my own research and listened to what's been put out there, I'd accept the fact that things will be fine. QEC/TLM do a test of each well and water before and after to check for contamination and so far nothing....and I fully expect there to be nothing ever if done right. Lot of the same enviornmentalists at the BAPE are the same few people and bringing up Gasland. Well that movie, including in Pennsylvania is being debunked hard and is being used for fear. Those wells were drilled by incompentent companies and does it makes sense to say a few ruined it for the rest? Even Toyota had a mishap with their cars, does that mean we all stop driving car altogether? Doesn't make sense. The report in February will find nothing wrong with drilling just as the others haven't found anything and this will continue moving forward.

Some companies, TLM, deciding to wait...np in my books. Clearly being given the go for a new 6 well pad and applied for another pad in Quebec shows that this is moving ahead. St Ed results were great, and if you do the detailed research and comparison, so was Gentilly. Canbrium drilling away still. Spoke with David Vincent of Gastem, they said they will shortly announce new Quebec plans soon. This I am guessing has something to do with the Forest Oil and how they said they are planning a new horizontal this winter (QEC is part of that by the way I believe).

As this things starts approaching more results and better news, it'll move right back up. If TLM release the Leclercville results Nov 2 in the Q3 update (and many have mentioned that in the BAPE meetings they mentioned it was the most promising well to date...3/8 fracs gave St. Ed 12mmcf/d...who knows what this one did) we might see it shoot back up instantly. The beta on QEC is like 4. Which to say the least is massive. TLM are a company that are tight with money so if they say it's cheaper in Spring, then I believe them. I also feel that they would like to get this report out of the way and they'll feel even more comfortable going back at it.

I get that fracking is safe...but I understand if Quebecors don't or are reluctant to believe what the experts are saying...so treding lightly for these companies might make sense. If they want to drill thousands of wells over all those years, might make sense to play nice with the locals and make sure they are on board.

The 2011 timeline of demonstrating commercial parameters is still online. They will set up test pads and go forth, and from the recent TLM getting these new go aheads you can see they are setting up for it.

Doing your own DD isn't googling "Questerre" and "Quebec shale" and reading articles (like today Anela telling me the paper that called mislead her). It's going through presentations, calling and contacting companies up...understanding what results mean and asking people who attend these BAPE meetings what is happening etc...(read the forums, a lot have attended and have said positive things)...these are things you really won't find just on the surface, you have to dig a lot deeper (no pun intended) lol. It's maybe taking a look at other shale plays in Texas, seeing how they developed over time. Southwestern a prime example...jr company at $2 with no partner, over 5 years of drilling alone with no initial experience and now trading at $35 (which is lower for them).

I buy on long term fundementals and hold...I've seen this thing get beaten so many times and before the information was even worse...and everytime it's gone back up, then down, then up etc etc...I've seen nothing bad here but a 6 month delay and a boat load of solid results. These BAPE hearings if you read what I said back when they started is a solid thing...it actually shows the first steps towards really moving forward and engaging the public instead of just drill results and nothing more. If you want to move toward commercialization, you have to deal with the public and governments and QEC has been doing that for years now and being completely transparent.

Just a matter of time. If you can't stomach it, I suggest maybe large cap companies for your portfolio...but if you truly deep down believe in this like most of us that have been on this board for years going through the rollercoaster, then buy and hold and forget it because the rewards of this will be huge. If you don't, then move on. If you want to day trade it...ummm, the best of luck to you, because you're going to need it. I certainly can't as I'd probably get crushed.

You mention being bullish at all these levels...well duh?? If you believe in the long term, I get more excited to have another opportunity to buy at $1.60 rather than $3+ and my average comes down...simple simple idea. Many on this board have done it so many times (especially in 2008 when we had no results) and it's worked out pretty well.

Looking forward to getting that pipeline tied in. Remember, there will be more wells around St Ed and I'm positive all those will be tied into this pipeline as they come on. It will be 15mmcf/d capacity and they said they can upgrade it to increase that. A nice start to see that happening.

Rocco

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Oct 15, 2010 07:23PM

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