Re: Oil and NG?
posted on
Oct 15, 2008 08:05PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
That's exactly it...demand is slowing. Not like world demand is zero. China, instead of growing at 10-12%, is projected to grow at around 8%...still absolutely huge compared to the world, and India to grow around 7.5%...so you're looking at the over 30% of the worlds population to grow at a far greater percentage than any other country. Will they need oil and commodities...no question.
The price of oil to be this low isn't justified...maybe it was too high at $140, but an $80-90 is reasonable...the problem is that speculators are using market sentiment, this whole "the sky is falling, jump ship" we here everywhere we look to their advantage and going extremely short on oil. Sure demand will decrease, but not by much.
If you check out this site...
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/mar...
I took the following passage from that link...
The IEA cut its 2008 global demand estimate by 240,000 barrels of oil a day, now sees world demand of 86.5 million barrels a day this year, and cut its 2009 estimate by 440,000 barrels a day, to 87.2 million barrels a day.
Like what?? Oil demand will increase in 2009, but not as much as they thought. Still higher than 2008. It's just reduced growth estimates for demand, but still a growing demand. So if one sits down and really looks at the full picture, they'd understand the picture more...instead of letting the media manipulate and turn everything into a disaster.
Here is the demand officially from the IEA the past couple years and in 2009.
2007 - 85.90 MMBPD
2008 - 86.45 MMBPD
2009 - 87.21 MMBPD
Increase in demand, just at a slower rate. Anywho, doesn't make sense does it. Thought I would share that with everyone that didn't see those numbers.
And as far as NG goes, winter is coming, and prices are sure to increase. I was looking at Forest Oil, and man they've come down to around $20 from a high of $83 when oil and gas where at there highs. Pretty big drop compared to Oil and NG not falling nearly the same in a percentage outlook.
It's the confidence that is driving it all...once it's restored, and we see a turnaround, greed will drive the market again...markets are a leading indicator...pricing in the worst today...but 6-8 months before the economy turns around, the markets will first in anticipation of growth. So it's just a waiting game...for both this, and our drill results.
Anyone think Forest or TLM will hold off on results until markets stabalize, or try to accelerate their plans to increase confidence again. I read an article that said, with all these companies like Encana, Suncor, FST, Talisman trading at cheap discounts to their highs, to not be surprised to see players like BP and Total...world giants come in and try to scoop a few up....
Anywho, some food for thought. I wanted to share some of those things...sorry for the length.
I emailed Jason on the Liard shale, and also if we have or are planning to introduce a shareholder protection plan...incase of a buyout, that we're protected and get max value. I'll post when he replies.
Rocco:)