Re: Confession
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 10, 2008 09:54AM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Yeah well we've all dicussed that the results thus far and everything is on our favor from the capital invested to the results today...so everything points to this working out. We've in my opinion eliminated a lot of risk with being able to frac the rock and getting economic flow rates that are sustained, so it's just on a question of drilling horizontals, and proving up the play. I don't know if I've ever heard of horizontals not coming in higher, so I expect that we at least double or triple our vertical rates...of course the more fracs you put in, the higher it will go and the odds of that happening our high. Fairchij mentioned that Encana is fracing 10 times and getting huge flow rates. So I of course don't want to say that it's a pure gaurantee, but very highly likely.
So lets consider the down side...now we have properties in Saskatchewan in the Bakken, with I believe 70M barrels of oil...Jason said that recovery rates are going up. So far the results have been 7/7 on the fracing. Next we have our play in the Greater Sierra with Encana, first two wells were both around 220boe/d on production...and they said with the spacing, around 50 wells would be put up...this is a high gas zone with proven gas. And of course we have the play in the Liard shale...this has multi tcf potential and we're re-entering using our majors info on drilling, so they clearly have learned something that has them going back because they believe they can make it work. So what you're asking is if Quebec doesn't work, we have a lot of other plays with great upside, and so it'll be about waiting to see how those turn out as well...the markets will do what they do, but in the long run everything will be priced in. If Quebec results aren't good, then we'll go down, but then people might jump in because of those properties potential, or maybe other institutions won't sell their positions because they're waiting on the other property results. QEC has gone down quiet a bit already, and I firmly believe that even without Quebec, a $1 SP is very resonable...considering we have $70M in cash along with all these other assets.
So I hope I explained that ok...if anyone can add to it please do!
Rocco:)