Re: What's Up Today?
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 07, 2008 12:56PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Yeah for sure JQ. It has to be coming to an end, and institutions buying are holding (which from that site shows a holding of 37M+ shares), most have bought in the 1+ range to higher levels and are holding...so there should be a lot of support, and less and less people trying to get out and sell. And hey, lets not rule out manipulation, because if you're trying, these are the best times. But JF Tardiff from Sprott was buying up at the $3 level as he mentioned that day he was on BNN....and it was because of the TLM 800mcf/d vertical frac well...and he was buying after he said they had already held 15% of the company, so that was nice to see the increased support. So I think we'll be seeing more and more buyers show up...from institutions like them, and just other retail buyers with cool heads realizing the potential and thinking long term.
Bottom line, FST and TLM talking highly, TLM increasing $130+ million dollard budget and fundementals purely in place. TLM is tight with money and for them to invest this much in the play shows an extremely high level of confidence. Results have been excellent...same results with 100km of land inbetween...Lorraine hasn't even been tested..which could prove huge. Forest analyzed the play for 2 years before results came out...so if it was dead land, they'd just leave, but clearly it wasn't and now they're talking big time of the play. And comparing the rock properties and initial flow rates to the Barnett is a bold statement, but very encouraging! I know I'm being repetitive and boring, but I like to express the important points.
And lets even consider this. Once they prove the play and gas in place, and say the price of NG was break even for them at $3.50....which is absured, but just for ex sakes.....they might just leave it in the ground, but the fact that they proved up the resource is what's most important, because NG would eventually rise and they'd start drilling. It's all about valuation on the resource, because price of NG isn't going to make the gas disappear.
We heard Jason in the message I posted of his relpy, 1 mmcf/d makes the play economic...they expect 2-3mmcf/d with horizontals...Lorraine, who knows how good the results could be there. Risk of fracing the utica has been removed he mentioned, and the rock properties of the Lorraine they said are similar to the utica in that they have characteristics of being fraced easily. He said they mapped the fairway, and the thickness of where Forest and TLM are drilling (opposite ends) is consistent. He said during full scale production, 500-1000 wells can be drilled a year and more as they get going.
This play is based on a lot on technology of fracing, and we're getting into highly advanced capabilities for it. Well done to TLM for bringing on one of the top shale drillers for the play. Everything is going for us, which is why it's easy to forget everything here while you watch the SP...but we couldn't have asked for more so far, and things are looking good despite what markets do. Real valuation will be realized sooner or later...markets always look forward. I know it's hard to wait on results, but this takes time and it's really not an easy process to do this fracing...and I'm sure they're making sure it's done effeciently but properly.
Remember, Talisman went through many years where the SP was disappointing. They have a new head hancho lol, and he, according to many analysts, is doing the right thing by focusing on NA assets and so this shale play for them is very important and you can bet that they're doing everything to make sure things go well and that the drilling is done properly.
Baaah I just realize how much I wrote...sorry to bore you all, I'm sure you're all getting sick of it:(.
Rocco