as to production figures - the area that I can speak with a bit of direct knowledge on is the Jean Marie field in NE BC.
Encana has indicated that they will continue to develop this field [in agreement with QEC's report and in the face of the development of the Horn River Basin which has the potential to dwarf Jean Marie and is the focus of most of Encana's attention in the area]. It's a said locally that its a 'gimmee' for those who drill in the field. Note QEC's comments about upping the number of holes planned there from 6-8 to 8-12.
I think that QEC's production in the area will show a marked increase as a result but NG prices will determine whether this translates into higher net revenues. [Encana expects things to settle in between $9 and $10 in the intermediate term and they're using $9-$9.50 for planning purposes]
Wells in Jean Marie exhibit a similar pattern to those in other fields with regard to their production curve. Again, Encanna talks about a pattern where peak flow is acheived quickly then a 40% to 50% drop is experienced with a continued slow dropoff after that. I think that's what we're seeing with QEC and partially accounts for the fact that the co. wants to get more wells into production sooner as an offset to reductions in both production levels and gas prices.
On another note, Horn River was where Utica is 18-24 months ago. It now has a handfull of demonstration wells online with more under development. The field is expected to be under significant production in another 24-36 months depending on a variety of technical and pricing factors [barring any surprises]. This will require the development of infrastructure to which the Utica Basin already has access, and detailed consultation with First Nations with interests in the area so, assuming test results are promising, the timetable could be quicker in Quebec. Once the Horn River comes into production it is expected to have a 30-50 year life span without the characteristic peak and fall of a conventional field... The sooner the better - I need those shares to get to a point at which i can check out this retirement thing I keep hearing about...
