Re: Where is everyone?
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 11, 2008 07:11AM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Hey Roy!
Well thanks for the vote of confidence. I think I am the only one left these days that still believes in this thing haha as you can see by the board. Are you a holder? I did not know that it started at 40c, thanks for the info.
I actually know Jason from QEC quite well. We have been shareholders for 3 years(buying/selling dips). He mentioned to me a few days ago about how he personally feels that it is biased to say, but that the company is really undervalued.
I asked him if I could post his email and he said its not a problem, so here it is:)
"The preliminary results from Antler show the horizontal wells are more successful than vertical wells in increasing production of the light sweet oil. Based on 1P reserves of 70,000 barrels per horizontal well, this works out to a recovery factor of 7%-9% of the oil in place. Based on the results achieved by other operators in the area, a fracture stimulation is expected to increase the reserves to 100,000 barrels per well and the stabilized production from 30 boe/d (gross) to 60 boe/d (gross). Using the 45 locations we have identified on the recently acquired 3-D seismic, production from the area net to Questerre could equal (45wells*50%*60 boe/d) = 1,350 boe/d. Using a market value of approximately $100,000 per flowing barrel and less the capital costs of $34 million ($1.5 million/well*45 wells *50%), this works out to an undiscounted, unrisked value of approx. $100 million or $0.60/share. This does not include any of the exploration spacing units or the waterflood. The waterflood could increase the recoveries to 15-20% of the oil in place, almost doubling the value above. We are in the early stages of evaulating the fracture stimulation and the waterflood, but the results are quite encouraging.At Greater Sierra, based on EnCana's experience in developing this play with two horizontal wells per sq. mile and our 54 square miles, there could be a total of 64 wells drilled (assuming a 60% success rate). With initial production of 100 boe/d net to Questerre from these wells, total production could be (64 wells*50%*100boe/d)=3,200 boe/d. Using a market value of $50,000 per producing barrel and less the $70 million in capital ($2.2 million/well*64*50%) results in a undiscounted, unrisked value of $90 million or $0.50/share. This does not include any potential for any of the deeper horizons or the exploration potential on the land.
The potential of Quebec for the Trenton Black River and Utica shale could be substantial. Based on 40 acre spacing and 300,000 acres of land prospective for the shales, there could be over 7,000 wells drilled just for the shales. At stabilized rates of 200 mcf/d per well (33 boe/d) and a 25% working interest on average, even if 50% of the wells are successful, the potential production to Questerre is significant. The work being completed by Forest Oil on the shale gas wells will give us a good indication of the productivity. The Talisman wells will also test the shales and the deeper Trenton Black River formation.
We are also finalizing the drilling of our first horizontal well into the oil pool in Vulcan and should have the results the later this month."
Cheers,
Rocco:)