Hey..
posted on
Jan 21, 2008 09:08AM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
This well is definantely not make or break for QEC. I think the drop is basically because this Nahanni well was hyped up so much and they didn't quite meet their expectations, and also with the markets the way they are, people started selling into the market price and we hadno buyers. I am just not worried because the price is down based on a measily 94K shares. It is pretty volatile but all it takes is someone buying 50K shares to shoot it up. There are a lot of people that bought in the past couple weeks, and more people who have held through the slide we had, so I don't think the price is a fair reflection of investor confidence. I think a few people have panicked and sold in my opinion, a mistake.
I mean they don't have the exact production numbers from Nahanni, but say it is tied in at 900boe/d, that is 450boe/d to our net prod. because we own a 50% interest. This company has so many properties. The first well in our new property tested 338boe/d which is huge. If I recall, QEC said they owned 54sq miles, and planned on setting up 2 wells per sq mile(it was in the news release, correct me if I am wrong). Now even if they set up just a fraction of that, 10 wells with flow rates near that, that is still an additional 3500 boe/d more or less, so an additional 1750boe/d to QEC. Note that these wells are horizontal and easier to drill. I believe this last one was drilled in about a month or so.
Then we are sitting on 70million barrels in Saskatchewan, and we just drilled two wells their and we should have numbers at the end of the month. Two additional wells are underway as well and should be completed at the end of the month as well and the are going to drill one more at the end of Febuary. So I believe we own 100% of that, so assuming what they said of traditional rates of 100-200 boe/d, that's an additional 500-700boe/d staying on the conservative side.
Another vulcan well has been drilled, and in the news report said a possible 400m of potential reservoir. Now our other vulcan well is producing somewhere around 1000boe/d. So hopefully we can see similar number their.
And finally, which I think is a place most people overlook, is Quebec. Mr Binnion had said that this is the biggest ahievment for the company. First well tested 750boe/d, and they are going to participate in an additional 2 this year. I think that owning all that land, could result in potential for larger companies coming in, like Talisman who has already, forest oil etc etc.
So I would not take today as a sign of the company in shambles, because it is the complete opposite. I just wanted to get my thoughts out their, and if I am mistaken in any thing I said, please correct me, I am writing this all from memory.
Please, anyone else have any thoughts? Okkeg it's been a while lol, enlighten us!
Rocco:)