Musings
posted on
Sep 15, 2010 12:39AM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
Hey everyone! It's been a while since I posted, mainly because for a long time there was nothing to say. The recent news has been good, but I don't think it's as good as everyone had hoped. Acquiring Goose adds ounces right away, but not really an extraordinary amount, and at the expense of a lot of dilution- and at a 40% premium to what the market had valued GG at. Not the same as if Kodiak had discovered those ounces with the $75M they've mostly chewed through. In fact, the amount that Goose has is less than many of us at one time thought Kodiak had.
As to Kodiak's results on their properties, it's about time. As of the time of their 43-101, I think they had spent as much to find the gold as it was worth- and that's before the expense of digging it out of the ground. The new results are much better than anything so far- but they are going to have to repeat it in more than one hole before it becomes a resource. How much money and time will that take? Will there be any money left over to fund a mine? Or is there more dilution in the future. Maybe they can sell off a bit- but the problem is that if they sell off the little bit that looks to have an economic resource so far, there's nothing left worth mining as of now. And there are no guarantees- remember the original results that sent Kodiak to $5 seemed to indicate that they could drill anywhere they wanted.
Am I bitter? Yes, a bit- but I think my attitude is more a result of the facts than of emotion. I think investors were misled in at least a few instances, and I think a huge amount of money was poorly spent. Anyone who got in at the recent bottom is probably OK, but any of us who bought in before that are probably well underwater. I in fact pretty much gave up waiting and have sold most of my Kodiak shares. Good thing, too- I used the money to buy some stocks that have done much better- including a couple of 5 baggers that I expect to move much higher and a couple others that I expect to run on news. I can't imagine that Kodiak will do better than any of those, even if Kodiak manages to repeat and extend their recent results.
I do have a few shares of Kodiak left- just couldn't let go of all of them. But I think it would have to run to somewhere near $100 to make back my original investment! I'll continue to follow Kodiak and this board, but with much less at stake than before.
Good Luck to everyone.