Estimate Version 2
posted on
Aug 20, 2009 11:12PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
Thanks, too much praise, overvalued me, I learned much more from you guys actually
I revised it based on Cedartree's comments, call it version 2, added new column of "Open", also changed the comparison with AND, (apple to apple)
1, I still cannot persuade myself to give higher grade number to 8-9 g/t, IF I AM WRONG, PLEASE CORRECT ME.
Because:
A: let us go to page 13 of KXL July 9, 2009 presentation, look at BLUE area, (3-7 g/m3, divide by 2.61 t/m3, average at 1.5g/t around), there is even larger areas of White, which is zero g/t also need to be considered, the bigger cubic meters, the lower grade after consider the dilution on zero area
B, on the bottom of same page: (Widths 0.5 to 3 meters), so average at 1.5m around
2, For $/oz, I like Cedartree's range, there some factors are very encouraging
A. BMO covered junior exploration firms average $/oz = $68
B, Canadian firms are much higher, LSG $223/oz, SGR $324/oz
C, AND's recently total reserve updated to 2.8M, Market cap $900M, $300/oz(Eureka zone 600 m along strike, 300 depth, as much as 20 m wide) it is in Argentina
D. I believe KXL deserves $150 when NI43 report is out.
3, I am not comfortable to for guessing GM over 2.0Moz, cause the Management's wording of "use GM to leverage…."
This "Leverage" makes me feel GM is not big at least for now, maybe mediate size, otherwise, just one Matalac already determined OSK's fade, no need for leverage others.
Overall, the key factor here is g/t, it impacts the result significantly, if you feel I am too MEAN on it, I don’t know too much of the Grade technique, improve it with your thoughts please, then we have version 3
GM Project | Open | Over optimism | Optimisim | Fair | Conservative | Over Conservative | AND Eureka zone (Apr. 09) | |
Length (m) | 9,000 | 9,000 | 2,530 | 2,530 | 2,530 | 2,530 | 400 | |
Depth (m) | 1,500 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 450 | 300 | |
Thickness (m) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 15 | |
m3 | 20,250,000 | 13,500,000 | 4,427,500 | 3,795,000 | 3,162,500 | 1,138,500 | 1,800,000 | |
t/m3 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.61 | |
Coverted Tons | 52,852,500 | 35,235,000 | 11,555,775 | 9,904,950 | 8,254,125 | 2,971,485 | 4,698,000 | |
Average g/t | 2.80 | 3.00 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 11.60 | |
Estimated grams | 147,987,000 | 105,705,000 | 52,000,988 | 39,619,800 | 28,889,438 | 13,371,683 | 54,496,800 | |
g/oz | 31.1035 | 31.1035 | 31.1035 | 31.1035 | 31.1035 | 31.1035 | 31.1035 | |
Estimated ozs | 4,757,889 | 3,398,492 | 1,671,869 | 1,273,805 | 928,816 | 429,909 | 1,752,111 | |
$$$ per oz | 200 | 160 | 140 | 100 | 80 | 68 | 250 | |
Value | 951,577,797 | 543,758,741 | 234,061,705 | 127,380,520 | 74,305,303 | 29,233,829 | 438,027,875 | |
Shares outstanding | 90,000,000 | 90,000,000 | 90,000,000 | 90,000,000 | 90,000,000 | 90,000,000 | 403,000,000 | |
Value/share | 10.57 | 6.04 | 2.60 | 1.42 | 0.83 | 0.32 | 1.09 |