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Message: Estimate Version 2

Estimate Version 2

posted on Aug 20, 2009 11:12PM

Thanks, too much praise, overvalued me, I learned much more from you guys actually

I revised it based on Cedartree's comments, call it version 2, added new column of "Open", also changed the comparison with AND, (apple to apple)

1, I still cannot persuade myself to give higher grade number to 8-9 g/t, IF I AM WRONG, PLEASE CORRECT ME.

Because:

A: let us go to page 13 of KXL July 9, 2009 presentation, look at BLUE area, (3-7 g/m3, divide by 2.61 t/m3, average at 1.5g/t around), there is even larger areas of White, which is zero g/t also need to be considered, the bigger cubic meters, the lower grade after consider the dilution on zero area

B, on the bottom of same page: (Widths 0.5 to 3 meters), so average at 1.5m around

2, For $/oz, I like Cedartree's range, there some factors are very encouraging

A. BMO covered junior exploration firms average $/oz = $68

B, Canadian firms are much higher, LSG $223/oz, SGR $324/oz

C, AND's recently total reserve updated to 2.8M, Market cap $900M, $300/oz(Eureka zone 600 m along strike, 300 depth, as much as 20 m wide) it is in Argentina

D. I believe KXL deserves $150 when NI43 report is out.

3, I am not comfortable to for guessing GM over 2.0Moz, cause the Management's wording of "use GM to leverage…."

This "Leverage" makes me feel GM is not big at least for now, maybe mediate size, otherwise, just one Matalac already determined OSK's fade, no need for leverage others.

Overall, the key factor here is g/t, it impacts the result significantly, if you feel I am too MEAN on it, I don’t know too much of the Grade technique, improve it with your thoughts please, then we have version 3

GM Project Open Over optimism Optimisim Fair Conservative Over Conservative AND Eureka zone (Apr. 09)
Length (m) 9,000 9,000 2,530 2,530 2,530 2,530 400
Depth (m) 1,500 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 450 300
Thickness (m) 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 15
m3 20,250,000 13,500,000 4,427,500 3,795,000 3,162,500 1,138,500 1,800,000
t/m3 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
Coverted Tons 52,852,500 35,235,000 11,555,775 9,904,950 8,254,125 2,971,485 4,698,000
Average g/t 2.80 3.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 4.50 11.60
Estimated grams 147,987,000 105,705,000 52,000,988 39,619,800 28,889,438 13,371,683 54,496,800
g/oz 31.1035 31.1035 31.1035 31.1035 31.1035 31.1035 31.1035
Estimated ozs 4,757,889 3,398,492 1,671,869 1,273,805 928,816 429,909 1,752,111
$$$ per oz 200 160 140 100 80 68 250
Value 951,577,797 543,758,741 234,061,705 127,380,520 74,305,303 29,233,829 438,027,875
Shares outstanding 90,000,000 90,000,000 90,000,000 90,000,000 90,000,000 90,000,000 403,000,000
Value/share 10.57 6.04 2.60 1.42 0.83 0.32 1.09
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