Re: OSK's 3D vs. KXL's 3D
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 20, 2009 04:10PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
Doze, that's a great table that you made - we may not have done it that neatly here before - I gave you a "recommend" for it definitely.
Since we're enjoying the projections again, might as well refine a bit.
My description of g*m/t was slightly off, and I'm sure you meant t/cm instead of cm/t, but you did the math right, so no worries, that's great.
A few adjustments - 1.5m thickness is 1.0 meters, only because the grade numbers have already been normalized to 1.0 (e.g. instead of saying 1.5 meters at 12 g/t, they give the equivalent at 1 meter at 18 g/t, so that you can add up all the strike and dip equally without adjustments all over the place). So the thickness is 1.0 meters. But the average grade is likely a bit higher - some areas are 20-30 g*m/t, and the average is probably roughly 8-9 g*m/t, being conservative.
As to the $/oz in the ground, your range is also good research. However, in today's market, it's more like $80-100/oz, although when the exploration market heats up it'll get back to $150. So let's count on $80/oz or $100 max.
We won't have any trouble at all going well over 1,000 m depth, 1,500 for sure, beyond that we don't know. But if you want to count just to 1,000 m no problem. Everything is open and growing at depth.
The above adjustments would not quite double the figures in your excellent table. When reasonably valued in the market, it appears that a total value of $250m-$500m for the company is easily justified, and a share price of very roughly $2.50 - $5.50, leaving aside all the other veins, properties and the cash in the bank.
If this property appeared as a new discovery on the market today, I'm very sure it would be $5.00 (again) lickety split. But because it's not fresh news, even though our grades are much better indeed than what makes for exciting news in new discoveries this year, we don't have a fire under us and the stock is badly undervalued. That's life.
When (no longer if) KXL puts out a 43-101, I am guesstimating that the total oz given will describe just a core region, a richer part of the GM that a ramp can be justified on sinking for a bulk tonnage test. So I would guess that the first 43-101 (leaving future revisions open) would be for somewhere in the range of 1.0 - 4.0 m oz gold.
When KXL was at $5.00/share before, as coach247 (our eminence grise here) rightly put it, we were ahead of ourselves. But now we've done enough drilling to prove that it's not a flash in the pan. Some of the spectacular surface grades were not repeated - yet - but the near-continuous excellent grades that we do have (they really are quite good) will make for an enticing 43-101 and hopefully a much more reasonable share price - at least in the $2.50 range. I would be delighted by $2.50, beaming at $5.00, and drunk with pleasure and/or Portee's ripple at anything beyond that.
I am hoping that management will get feeling a bit wild a bit more and be a bit more creative in keeping a level of excitment going, so that we're in a bit more of a reasonable range. I can hope, right?
Sometimes I wish Murray Pezim was still around! Hemlo took far longer to get to the point we are at now already. Murray would have NR's on KXL gold every 2 months and KXL would be on the front page of the Fin. Post every 12 days, and not only because of his personal shenanighans. We'll have to make do with businesslike approach. Thanks again for the great chart.