Re: Is the Venture Exchange bottoming?
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 08, 2008 03:21AM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
Extremely brutal, I think I clearly will not make it to Las Vegas, just barely to Honest Ed's free turkey line up instead.
Everything is down so the question is which stocks have the best chance of recovering the most, which of course is hard to figure out.
Some stocks are down because expected captial costs are just very high; this includes companies like Northern Dynasty, the Gallore Creek project, SKYE resources were eventually taken over by HudsonBay, and this is possible also the main reason for BIM's large drop. To recover these stocks need improvements in credit market, higher (sustained?) metal prices, real growth in the world economy. Increase in size of deposit etc will not help the SP to much in the short term. This will clarely take time
Some stocks are down because results have not been as great as hoped, and I think this includes Kodiak and all GB stocks. Kodiak would fly if we would find a rich and large deposit, everything else is basically perfect(location, infrastructure, people). This could happen any time or hopefully not, never
Personally I think of all the metals, gold should be the one with most upside over the next couple of years. The base metals are down, capacity is being reduced, projects are being delayed or deferred. It will take time and growth to get this capacity back so I do not see large upside to the base metal prices over the next year or so. Ofcourse the stock market is ahead of the actual economey but I do not see much upside in these base metal stocks either operating or exploration.
Gold and KXL could fly, but I have to admit that my hopes and expectations are not close to what they used to be. I have decided to stick to my a large holding of Kodiak but all the stocks I have been buying the last month have been from the group of Barrick, Cameco and Agrium
Why do I stick to KXL; partly because I think there is indeed a large potential upside and I am not willing to take the risk of selling KXL and buying another junior gold because that could drive me right to the madhouse if Kodiak hits what we all are hoping for.