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Message: KXL valuation

KXL valuation

posted on Jul 25, 2008 12:11PM

I posted this on SH in response to a discussion about where to put your money...

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Just my personal opinion.

The best thing about ONT, SGX, LME, RMK etc... news releases is that they are all finding gold. This verifies that the entire region is highly mineralized. The biggest player without a doubt.. even if you add up all the area plays, is KXL.

KXL has identified 30 prime targets for this year alone. Each of these could be an ONT, LME, or RMK. On top of that, KXL has their base metal and uranium properties which could stand alone and do not contribute at all to the current share price.

I'm thrilled with the great results at ONT and the others... but my core money stays with KXL. They are the "main" play in this area. The area plays are the side shows. I "trade" in some area plays for the inevitable lift they will get when KXL moves. I "invest" in KXL because this is the long term grand slam.

The valuation for KXL is mind boggling. The national bank has a target of $5.50. This is very conservative in my books. Put these numbers into a spreadsheet and play around with them. Do some "what if " scenarios.... the results are mind numbing!!!

In situ price of gold: $200/oz (Elenor mine purchase price)
Price of Gold: $900/oz
Specific gravity: 2.6t/m3
Length = 30km
Avg width = 2 m
Depth = 500m
Area = 30,000,000 m3
Tonnage = 78,000,000 tonnes
Avg grade = 5g/t
grams = 390,000,000
ozs = 12,187,500

Using the In situ value

NPV before expenses = $2,437,500,000!!!!

SP = $24.38

Knowing what we know, ask yourself these questions...
1) Is the length of 30km an exaggeration with all of the new veins they are finding?
2) Is the width an exaggeration?
3) Is the depth an exaggeration based on other greenstone systems in Canada?
4) Is the avg grade of 5 g/t representative of the results to date?

Now... compare the SP above and the figures used with what the National Bank used. The above estimate blows away the NB target and I STILL think I'm being conservative.

Anyway... just having fun with numbers and possibilities. I posted these same numbers last fall when all the excitment was beginning. Now we know so much more.

IMHO....

GLTA

m.z.


Jul 25, 2008 12:43PM
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Jul 25, 2008 12:45PM
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