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Message: Kinross / ARU - 1st of Juniors takeover wave?
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Jul 24, 2008 07:36AM
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Jul 24, 2008 08:20AM

tau
Jul 24, 2008 08:33AM

Jul 24, 2008 08:36AM

Jul 24, 2008 08:51AM

Jul 24, 2008 09:08AM

Kinross / ARU - 1st of Juniors takeover wave?

posted on Jul 24, 2008 10:21PM

Here is the CBC article on the Kinross takeover offer for ARU

ARU has often been compared to KXL, but of course their political problems in Ecuador have been terrible, and we have none. Something good.

ARU stock jumped very sharply up from yesterday's $4.45 close towards today's $8.20-equivalent Kinross offer. Sweet for ARU shareholders. Even if ARU is worth a lot more than $8.20 (probably), Kinross has a lot more moxy to iron out the political problems, so ARU is better off in their hands.

If this is the start of a takeover wave, that would be great for KXL. KXL will likely take over 1 or 2 tiny juniors in the area, and KXL will be very appealing itself in a takeover wave. Juniors have been dead for a good while. Anyone have a good reason to say where we are in the cycle?

In a takeoverwave, we'd be in a sweet spot, that is, sigh, if we ever get a NR. About 7 weeks now until the magic Ganalane "maximum-wait-time" date for a NR on Sept. 15. My grumpyness will rise to a crescendo if I have to wait until then. And we're one week closer to August - there was a lot of speculation that we'd see a NR ("IR said so" ??) before the end of July.

I can't help but think - the general markets are in the tank, and the smart money is saying that the S&P will have to drop by about 1/2 or 1/3 more in the wake of subprime. An undesirable headwind to release exciting exploration results into. But when you gotta go, you gotta go.

They can't keep us waiting forever, can they? Surely there is a law against cruel and unusual punishment.

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