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Message: Homework

Goldenbear - why shares are cheap, e.g. $2.20

in response to by
posted on May 02, 2008 11:55PM

Thanks for your post goldenbear, as to why ? KXL shares are down. And, I found the chuckdog posts and replies very amusing. Welcome back chuckie - I see from your posts that you have been nearly housetrained in the meanwhile. Don't get to thinking that you can pe.e into my shoes and get away with it though.

Goldenbear - here are my reasons for the stock price being down:

1) Decay - decay in a stock without news: for some years I traded options. Black-Sholes was the theory that guided options traders. A key element is "decay". Without news or a new reason to hold, over time prices tend to decay. In part, that is the cost of holding an asset that doesn't pay a dividend or interest. Gold exploration stocks tend to have very little to say over the Winter. Ergo the price decays.

2) All the junior miners have endured "compression" - not in the bid/ask sense (bid/ask move apart), but in the equivalent of P/E or book value multiple compression - all juniors have garnered less market interest than last Summer/Fall. Juniors tend to get bid up in a fast-rising market - i.e. 2007 - "a rising tide lifts all boats" - and vice-versa the reverse - when stocks are down in general, the more speculative stocks suffer more. KXL suffered with all the rest of the juniors. They all slumped.

3) We got ahead of ourselves. This the dynamics of KXL itself. Ironically, we suffered more because we're better. There was so much excitement around the prospect, confirmed by a $3.80 PP (with no options or warrants!!!!! - a big deal!) that the price went nuts. As Coach247 pointed out, wise old soul that he is, we got ahead of ourselves. The stock might be worth $5.00 soon, but there was too little hard data (no deep drilling at all!) last Fall to justify the solid inference of a deposit. It may be there, but we haven't gathered the proof yet.

4) None of the above say much of anything about the intrinsic value of KXL. I remain a heavy long. Superb geology, fantastic and enormous and quality property claims, star management, finances, promotion - it's the Real Meal Deal.

Be thankful that the blazing heat of Summer doesn't arrive in May. Can you imagine the bugs, for one thing? It would be unnatural. Rome wasn't built in a day. 60,000m of drilling happens to take about as much time as 60,000m of drilling. No changing that.

The price is down because it should be down. Stockholders who bought in at $0.35 or at $3.50 and who don't follow the story and don't know anything about the company really, they sell in trickles, and longs hold as much as they can afford. The rest of the money will come in after such things as the Hard Assets Show and certainly after good drill results.

The tortoise won the race, right?

So yes, the price is down, and everything is as it should be ... for a healthy runup over the next few months.

I am a happy long, still accumulating. Saying "buy low, sell high" isn't good enough. Better is "buy when dropping, sell when rising". More guts, more glory.

Any other takers? Theories? Facts? Insights?

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