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Message: PDAC 2008 Convention & Tradeshow

When they move they REALLY move (gold expl. stocks)

in response to by
posted on Feb 14, 2008 06:12PM

Back from South America.

Re: Kodiak, I came across two current pluses and two current minuses to add to the picture. Based o the overall plus prospect we had, I still add it all up to a plus, hard though these times are for us Longs.

Minus: the delays. New Years, winter, until recently only one drill turning, continuing delays at the labs: no news isn't good news - the health of exploration stocks is all about news. I think there will be a delay, but within weeks news will come.

Minus: the financial system is in epically bad shape. For example muni bonds, the safest bonds to buy, next to treasuries, such as bonds for cities to build bridges, which almost never default, are not selling at all. It's never happened. Tremors.

Plus: The big investment banks are always up to something, in any market. Running from the buildings they built and then set on fire (fancy credit derivatives built on subprime), they are now turning back to commodities. That is good for gold exploration stocks.

Plus: Gold exploration stocks are historically undervalued and near to an inflection point up. As the article says, "When they move they REALLY move, to the extent that they regularly end up yielding much greater trough-to-peak gains then their larger-cap brethren."

KXL is still a very good prospect for all the reasons we know (geology, finance, location, people), but is going through a very dark financial forest. I can't be sure exactly how the influences will play out in the near term, but if the financial markets survive (which is a bit of an extreme question to ask, acknowledged), then I would (and still do) put my money on KXL making solid gains.

Historically, gold exploration stocks take a hard hit in crisis times and then motor upwards very strongly indeed. I have faith that the truth will win out, and that KXL longs will be rewarded.

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