Here is my take on your question.

First off, you don't HAVE to pick the bottom on anything to make money. Technically, I would say there is a chance KXL will retest it's recent lows of nearly $2. If it falls below that, it may go farther. My thoughts would be either

A) divide your investment money up and make a couple purchases.

B) wait until the market confirms your hunch.

Personally, I think B makes the most sense... and you can still divide your buying. If next week KXl is $3 and going higher, you might be a bit miffed that you missed today's price, but at least your current holdings are increasing in value, and the bus is going in the right direction. Buy now and it falls to $1.80, you kick yourself for not waiting, AND all your investment is devalued. Many technicians look for 2 things at a bottom. either it tests the recent low and fails to pierce it by a significant amount, or it rallys past where it rallied to and fell back. For KXL that is a bit over $3 where it got to Jan 24. OF course, nobody knows, it could start to vault tommorow, get a good (or bad) NR... whatever.

Just food for thought.