Re: Does the volume speak volumes? Coach?
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 18, 2008 02:53PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
Hi Ganalane!
I would agree that the relatively low volume is a good indicator. In fact, most of my juniors are down bigtime on low volume lately. What that suggests to me is that buyers are spooked and are unwilling to step up and take advantage of lower prices. You are seeing stink bids getting filled, and only the most bullish investors are willing to even put in a bid at any price. There is no stampede of sellers out there but when the buyers stay away the stock is sure to fall hard on even small orders executed at market. I would also agree that if things were really bad you would see much higher volumes as investors would bail out and head for the hills.
KXL is considered to be a very risky stock because it does not have any guarantee that an economic resource will ever be proven up. There are some very encouraging early results, but that is baked into the share price too. So when the market gets scared and people feel they cannot tolerate risk, then many will sell even a very solid prospect like KXL, no matter what they book for the market price. Since many of the shares outstanding changed hands below a buck just a few months ago, for some people its great to just get that cash in hand, even if its substantially less than could have been realized a week ago.
With about $50 million in the treasury, I think KXL can stay liquid and active for much longer than the markets can stay weak. Or to put it another way, I think buying and holding now makes a great deal of sense for the long term, even if the worst case scenario for the markets comes to pass. If things do settle down quickly, which is what commonly happens after a panic, then KXL will probably recover the lost share value very quickly. Hell, we only need to look back to August to see how quickly utter panic can blow over.
I was walking around on Hercules with a geo the last time that KXL shares traded this cheaply, back in October. I remember thinking it was going to be a huge story and bought more shares. Right now the company is much further ahead than when I was invited on my tour, and the share price looks even better to me. The markets are not going to collapse IMO. So I was not afraid to buy this week, and if I can find the money from somewhere I will buy more next week. I really do not care if the market and KXL may go even lower before it turns around. The bottom line for me is that I believe it WILL turn around and go higher.
This is not to be confused with advice. I do not mind sharing my opinion, and disclosing my own trading. Everyone that reads this is going to have to decide for themselves if I am FOS or on the right track. So far this year I have made more bad decisions than good ones, and who knows if the shares I bought above $4 will turn out to be a mistake. I know I am not going to cry about it.
cheers!
mike