TODAY'S DISCOVERY, TOMORROW'S FUTURE

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Message: Theory

Theory

posted on Jan 17, 2008 12:29PM

I'm going to write a theory on why we are down despite the fact that I know that it is completely useless to do so.

In late Dec., many losing Jr mining stocks that had a tough year got hurt further by tax loss selling.  This of course would not affect KXl, because at the end of Dec., you could put all the people who were down on Kodiak in a Honda and have a couple seats left over.  We did have a lot of people who were wayyyyy ahead, and would not be looking to sell until the new year.  However, with news pending, why sell and miss out on potentially another 10, 20 or more percent?  When news came out and there wasn't so much gold that it dammaged the drill bits, the price began to sink, and many thinking about locking in some profits did so.  Add to this the weakening stock market with people looking to pare their exposure and offset some losses with gains, the selling has continued.  Sort of an "imperfect storm".  I shudder to think how bad it would be if the NR was a total stinker. 

The one thing that gives me a little comfort is that volume isn't all that high.  Since the Nr, about 5 million shares have traded hands, or about 3-4% of the total float.  From this, I am thinking the major players are still holding firm.  The stinker is that for the first time since Oct 1st, i am below my average cost, and was not brave enough to sell part of my position early on.  Yes, I think that selling part of your position early takes guts, and if i had, I could buy back my shares now and 30% more.  Maybe I should learn and put a stop under some of my shares right now.

Want one stinking little stat?  The last time KXL had a big run, it had returned to it's pre rally price in 20 weeks, peaking 10 weeks in.  I was not a shareholder then, but i see volume was heavier (as high as the highest up week) and the price break was sharper.  Our peak price has come 11 weeks in, and we are heading lower in week 15.  Hope history does not repeat.  Lets hope for a bounce back tommorow.

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