finally a dose of reality
posted on
Nov 20, 2007 01:10PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
I think we are getting that correction in KXL now, in the midst of a correction across the entire sector. I would agree with anyone that points out it is an odd time for it to happen, considering all that is going on with the metals. Gold has only traded above $800 only a handfull of times in all of history. Yet as soon as we got the slightest let up in trading, down goes the sentiment and everyone is calling a top across the board. WTF, this is a manic-depressive market.
For those that may get their panties in a knot, I have refrained from posting on this board for a while, because I am short term bearish. I can go back over all the reasons why I am bullish as hell on KXL overall, but I also have been around long enough to know that a big chunk of the gains in share price came from unsophisticated retail chumps piling on a hot story. And those types usually get bored and find a reason to unload as soon as the music stops. In fact, the only reason that KXL has not come back down with a thud is because so many more of those chumps are hanging around for the last batch of assay results. And god help us all if they come in as a disappointment. In fact, I think KXL needs to report hitting solid gold for meters to avoid disappointing the market.
All of the above is neither here nor there for a long term shareholder. And regardless of what some may think, I am not a trader. I have executed a few trades to sell near the top, and I have been buying lately. I am sitting on another small bid at $3.06 that I expect to see filled, so there is my disclosure for anyone that may think I am bashing with an agenda. Boo hoo...
Now I know that most of the people that post here are far more clued-in than the great majority of investors. But some posts here still show that people really do not appreciate the level of risk. Some were suggesting that the stock could not fall below the level of the placement. Remember all the posts about how big money could not be wrong and $55 million is not chump change... Well here we are. And remember how insiders were buying and therefore it must go higher? Well here we are. And its going to drop lower. Insider buying and institutional support represent huge endorsements, but none of that means a thing on the short term trading behaviour, since those players do not think in terms of what happens next week.
I also recall reading how we have 30 kms of gold veins. We do not. We do not even have 30 kms of veins outlined. What we HAVE is geophysically indicated veins amount to about 30 kms. They may exist and I suspect they do. Some of them will probably even turn out to have some gold in them. And all of that is great, and makes KXL a great story. But its a huge difference from saying that its all full of gold right now, and do not even get me started on the depth issue, when no drilling has gone beyond 150m but so many are willing to swear and bet their life savings that they go to more than 1500m...
My point is just that too many people are confusing the upside potential with the reality. And that is dangerous, and it means we have some correcting to do. And now that I have pissed off all the regulars on this forum, let me cut to the chase.
This is the best thing that can happen to the stock. Right here, right now, get some of the wild ass speculation out of the picture. Let the trading volume settle down, and transfer shares back into the hands of the people who deserve to own them, that can spot value, and will likely happily ride this story to much higher levels, correction or not. We are all impatient and are all expecting big things from KXL. But reality doesnt usually work that way. In the long term, the company is so much better off that things settle down a bit.
If the deposit is 3 million ounces, or even 40 million ounces, I can state with confidence that not one ounce will evaporate or disappear during a correction. Some hyper shareholders and traders may move on to other things. But the potential will remain the same. And with $55 million in the bank, I think KXL is going to be in great shape to go out and see what they have. It just wont happen overnight, or next week.
cheers!
COACH247