Since the BFS is due soon, and will include a NPV estimate for all the projects, I thought I'd take a stab at it myslef. I'm looking forward to the NPV provided in the BFS to see how close my estimates are.
To do this sort of thing, one needs to make a few assumptions (all $ values are US):
- Since little has been mentioned about Project 3, I am not including it in my numbers.
- I'm assuming the steady-state production goal of ~150,000 attributable ounces 4E will be met from Projects 1 & 2.
- From the news releases on resources, etc. I'm assuming PTM's share of Projects 1&2 comes to ~29M tonnes of ore containing ~4.36M oz 4E with a Pt/Pd/Rh/Au split of 63.2/26.9/7/2.9%.
- A little math gives about 27 years of production. I factor in 2 years ramp-up and ramp-down. Production in the final two years isn't as large as the previous years, of course.
- Long-term metal prices used are the 3-year trailing prices. These are: Pt, $1,294 ($2,014 today); Pd, $384 ($463); Rh, $5,385 ($9,860); Au, $662 ($888). This should be more than conservative, considering what the prices of these metals has done over the last 20 years.
- Financing should come to around $200M, including interest, plus full dilution amounting to ~100M shares. This again is conservative in my opinion, considering the fact that PTM should be responsible for 37% of the financing of Project 1 and ~18.5% of that of Project 2.
- Production costs should be ~$75/tonne of ore mined. It seems high by historical standards, but costs have been rising around the world, so I am trying to be conservative here.
After putting those numbers into my spreadsheet, I have to say I was pretty surprised:
NPV/Share US$
$3.66, 15% Discount Rate
$7.00, 10% DR
$10.55, 7% DR
$14.12, 5% DR
Put in today's metal prices and it gets jaw-dropping:
NPV/Share US$
$9.00, 15% DR
$15.66, 10% DR
$22.77, 7% DR
$29.92, 5% DR
Why the share price is sitting as low as it is, I have no idea.