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Message: Market Comparables

Market Comparables

posted on Jun 06, 2008 06:36PM

In the absence of large numbers of near-term PGM producers, valuation-based comparisons are rather difficult, but I thought I'd take a stab at it, using real and projected production numbers. I am usually skeptical of these types of comparisons because of differences in grade, depth, etc. (on which merits PTM often comes out ahead), but I suppose it does give a good indication of how the market is valuing PTM's ozs, relatively speaking.

Looking at actual producers, Anglo, Aquarius, Impala, Lonmin and Northam average about $7,500 in market capitalization per 4E oz of annual attributable production. Once PTM is up and running full steam (~2012), they will be producing in the neighbourhood of 95,000 attributable 4E ozs annually, which would put them at a market cap of ~$712M, for a value of ~$11.40/share, under the current share structure of ~62M shares fully diluted.

Fine, says anyone who can think, but those are producers, and PTM isn't producing yet. So, I looked at some other near-term (~2012) producers. Anooraq, Eastplats, Plat Aus, Platmin, Ridge and Wesizwe are currently valued at an average of ~$6,000 in market capitalization per 4E oz of annual attributable projected (2012) production (AAPP). At a share value of $2.90 as of closing yesterday, PTM is valued at ~$1,900 per 4E oz of AAPP, or less than 1/3 of the average of the other similar companies. Were PTM's ozs being valued the same as those in the other properties, PTM's market cap would be ~$570M, or ~$9 and change per share.

Clearly, there is a severe disconnect in the market with regards to PTM's current valuation.

D.

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