Re:If PDP's Colombia reserves are oil gusher after La Pinta success Warrior
posted on
Jun 09, 2009 04:14PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
believe in CLL;
In response to your question the following information comes from Jennings Capital Inc.'s Report dated March 3, 2009 which you can purchase from them. It tried to copy sections out of it but they willnot copy.
" a successful sale could see Petrolifera with over $2.35 per share on it's balance sheet. The Company has a $46 million draw against a reserves based credit facility that would have to be repaid upon sale, so net proceeds should be $124 million or higher depending on the sale price."
"Drilling continues on La Pinta.....La Pinta is a redrill of a 1975 well that tested 600 Bbl/d, but was subsequently abandoned due to casing collapse. Petrolifera's reserve evaluator has assigned possible reserves."
"What Can These Assets Realize?
In general we would consider three metholds for valuing Petrolifera's Argentine assets; comparable M&A transactions, trading parameters of peer companies and a net asset value. The M&A market in Argentina is not particularly active and provides no public transactions which may serve as an indicator of the value Petrolifera might receive. On a trading basis there are not a lot of companies similar to Petrolifera in size, location and production and reserve composition. In general, other producers in the Neuquen basin are either very large (Chevron, Apache, Total, YPR), very small (Argenta, and several private Argentine companies) or gas weighted. The only entity that is reasonably similar in size is Petro Andina, whose assets are immediately to the north of Petrolifera's and are currently trading at approximately $19,000/BOE/d, and $11.75/BOE of reserves (2P). However, there are substantial differences.
Reserves Comparison – Petrolifera vs. Petro Andina
Petrolifera |
Petro Andina |
|
% Oil (2P) |
85.7% |
100% |
Oil Gravity |
36o API |
19o API |
Reserve Life Index (2P) |
7.2 years |
5.8 years |
Potential adjustments work in both directions - Petrolifera's oil is more valuable than heavy, but gas has lower value due to controlled prices. The longer reserve life index will influence the value per flowing BOE upward, but decrease the value per BOE in the ground. All in all we believe that the range of values based on this imperfect proxy could be $20,000 - $23,000 per flowing BOE, and $10.00 - $11.00/BOE of reserves. This provides a range of $160 - $220 million.......
In the event of a sale Petrolifera would have to first pay down the $46 million outstanding on its reserve based loan. Assuming total proceeds of $170 million, Petrolifera could complete the sale , repay the loan and still have $124 million or $2.25/share cash. "
Best Wishes; Scott