https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7161007538774138881/
What a difference a boom in 800G transceivers makes (please see: https://lnkd.in/danHmsAw) – just compare the atmosphere of yesterday’s quarterly earnings call at Coherent with the firm’s Industrial Market Overview this past December, when it was still recovering from an unexpected rescue of Lumentum’s top line (please see: https://lnkd.in/eK4T2DFJ). “It's a great day here in Silicon Valley,” exclaimed CEO, Chuck Mattera (https://lnkd.in/evtnCxpX). Yet, despite having a 100 percent increase in sequential growth in datacom, along with a continuing “steep ramp,” one analyst inexplicably seemed to be obsessed with inventory on lower speed gear. Another one did not seem to be familiar with the fact that Coherent is a market share leader in datacom transceivers that involves tremendous complexity to remain in that position (please see: https://lnkd.in/e4DkNwnK), and was “struggling” on how it could compete at the 800G rate.
In fairness to those two individuals, while the extraordinary market development should hardly have been a shock, the all-consuming focus on a single, gigantic spike-up can be difficult to initially come up with truly critical inquiries. Given that the extraordinary growth is based on a highly unusual aberration involving support for AI, in an otherwise difficult optical component space, some humility is in order on the part of corporate leadership at Coherent. That goes for Lumentum as well, which also enormously benefited from an unexpected change involving Google’s need to purchase from suppliers that are supposedly not based in China – including Cloud Light. Unquestionably, pressures across the board on Coherent are dramatically lessened, such as in whether its 100G coherent QSFP-28 with the Steelerton DSP has achieved sufficient sales traction, involving the MSOs, or for wireless backhaul applications.