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Message: Re: Is there a "hole in the bucket, Dear Liza, Dear Liza"?

Moska:  "Well, when it comes to 'anything brushed by the hand of the CCP', would not Apple itself be one of the prime targets for that sort of protectionism? I mean, why would they pick on POET and not Apple?"

That is one perspective and it sure would be the correct one in a perfect world where all players are treated equally under the magnifying lens of government intervention/control and in the purview of an unbiased market.  Apple, obviously, is a giant oak tree vs the still nascent acorn known as POET.  Maybe there is a level playing field on this issue for the giant oak tree and the lowly acorn that still hasn't planted roots in the soil of the world marketplace.  Maybe.  I have every financial reason, Moska, to hope that "they" don't pick on either POET or Apple.  That would be my druthers.  My point was only to point out that there may be, emphasis on "may be", a potential fly in the ointment.  In the U.S. there has been much written about the abrasive political situation currently existing between the U.S. and China.  Some of that attention in print and in fact has been directed to focus the attention of the members of the Executive and Legislative branches on how the CCP relates and interdigitates with domestic companies in China.  Predicting how the U.S. Executive and Legislative branches will act on that information is similar to micturating in the wind.  The spray may go in any direction and not even "The Shadow" knows ahead of time what will get wet in that process.

In posting my comment about a possible "hole in the bucket" I had to consider the quote provided in an earlier post by Rainer back on 22 June 2024 when he published the whole of Suresh Venkatesan's presentation at the AGSM from the day previously, 21 June 2024.  A small exerpt from that presentation is germain to the "hole in the bucket" and more so, really, to Liza's reply to Henry about that infamour hole:

"Well FIX IT, Dear Henry, Dear Henry, Dear Henry.  FIX IT!"

Thanks, Rainer for providing the full transcript of Susresh's presentation, but my focus is on that part that is quoted below concerning the Business Model of POET Technologies:

 

"And then there is the issue of coping with the China-West split, especially as it relates to AI and high-speed transmission. While no one explicitly says “no China,” it is implicit. Innolight, Eoptolink, and several module companies in China have established operations in Thailand over the past year. Customers are dictating component choices based on geography. While it’s not clear where this is headed, it would be prudent to project that we will require optical engine manufacturing outside Super Photonics and outside China.

We’re working on this issue with renewed urgency. We believe in the not-too-distant future, we would need to adopt a bifurcated manufacturing and sales strategy. Within China, we’ll be setting up a sales and marketing company with external investment, dedicated to winning and growing in China, leveraging Chinese manufacturing and Chinese components, whereas outside China, we will use our internal sales and marketing engine and establish manufacturing, potentially in the Singapore-Malaysia corridor. In both cases, our collaboration with MultiLane provides us a source of optical module manufacturing."

For myself, I take solice to that specific sentence in that section of his larger presentation that stated:  "While it’s not clear where this is headed, it would be prudent to project that we will require optical engine manufacturing outside Super Photonics and outside China."

Others might label this as POET's example of "China + 1" policy, but in regards to our already sizable footprint in Singapore it would be more accurate, in relation to POET's Business Model, to ascribe the label as "China + 2 or more" policy.

It is just a personal opinion, worth absolutely nothing to anyone else, but I believe that the unfortunate pattern noticed on this message board by more than one POET investor whereby "Good News" for POET has for some time been about as welcome as the situation in Hinkley, Ohio when the Buzzards make their annual return to Hinkley.  All that bird poop to clean up can't be much of a positive sign and the firm pattern established for POET investors over many years now whereby "Good News" one day only pontificates that the Share Price will fall  the next day or in the next several days after the release of that "Good News"

I also believe, without any proof that belief will be validated, that when POET Technologies decides to implement it's China +2 or more" policy with concrete examples that can be thoroughly vetted in the market place by potential POET investors, then POET will break the mold for that nfortunate well established cycle of "Good News means the Share Price drops soon".  

Maybe then (concrete examples of China + 2 or more) POET will begin a new and more fortuitous pattern of:  "Good News is followed quickly by a sustained increase in Share Price"

It could happen, but in the mean time there is still a lot of FOG for the Good Ship POET to navigate before we find a safe and profitable harbor.

A good indicator that positive navigation is in progress would be POET announcing not only sales to companies outside China but also to announce the establishment of manufacturing locations outside China, for example:  more in Singapore and maybe an entirely new entry in Viet Nam.  I don't think I will live long enough to see the one I covet most:  POET Technologies announces a new manufacturing center in New Jersey (or Pennsylvania or Georgia or Washington State or.... TEXAS!!).  However, that last announcement, should it ever materialize, might just make me turn over a couple of dozen times in my grave.

Best wishes, Moska.  We are on the same team, even if I happen to see some warts on the body of POET.  Lincoln had warts.  Big deal, life wouldn't be real if there weren't a few pot holes on the journey and all of us have warts, even POET.

Onward through the FOG!

 

Okiedo

 

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