I have been here for about two years now. I have bought at various prices and never sold, leveraged, or shorted any shares. I have another "story stock" which means pre-revenue, with the same constant need for more capital via dilution, but a sound technology coming to market eventually. I've been with that one for 14 years. I've learned a few things.
The stock price does not matter much today. The valuation is based on what ifs and things hoped for. Suresh calls it following the puck, alluding to hockey, where numerous factors affect the pucks movement and it is hard to predict. My point is that no one knows exactly when things will fall into place, but we have a pretty good idea that the technology is sound, the market is heading our way, and the ride will be up and to the right when it comes to fruition.
Today's price is a function of the story, not a proper number crunching based on sales, revenues, profit margins, growth. Any number crunching is heavily discounted, and the best case is a watered down outlook, in the name of being a "responsible" analyst.
Once sales begin in earnest, the stock price will come true, reflecting more objective number crunching. Today's stock price will be irrelevant. It may be a drag for a time, but that only means that the stock will be undervalued vs. its new metrics tied to product shipments and more firm estimates of product uptake. Starting at under a dollar will turn a lot of heads when the real sales kick in.
Here's to 2024! I wish you all a happy new year with many reasons to celebrate.